Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej

Abstract

As expected a quarter ago, general economic situation in Poland improved (in the 2nd quarter of 2019). The IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) increased by 2.9 pts to -0.7 pts. It is, however, 4.1 pts down from the respective year 2018 figure. Usually, at this time of a year the indicator grows 3.0-7.0 pts (5.9 pts on average), so the current result should be considered rather low. The barometer has stabilized at the mean level lower than in 2018. The only industries which exhibit growing mid-term tendencies are motor transport and agriculture. The banking and construction sectors are on the cyclical decline, and the others move along the sideways trend. Positive seasonal factors should uphold in the next quarter, however, it is hard to expect general economic situation to firmly improve due to negative cyclical factors which have been sustaining for several quarters.(original abstract)