Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej : barometr koniunktury

Abstract

Economic situation in Poland in the 3rd quarter of 2020 improved, however, business activity is still on the low level. The IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) increased by 19.2 pts to -16.7 pts. It is now 15 pts down from the respective year 2019 figure. Usually, the barometer declines in the 3rd quarter as compared to the 2nd one. The increase recorded this year is the result of unlocking the economy affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Still some sectors (tourism, transport, culture inter alia) are under restrictions. It shall take more time for the economy to revive, considering that the negative seasonal factors are going to take over the coming months. All the indicators which contribute to the barometer, except forthe banking confidence indicator, rose quarterly, but are lower than one year earlier. It is hard to consider producers' and consumers' expectations as optimistic.(original abstract)