Koniunktura w gospodarce polskiej - barometr koniunktury

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2021 the IRG SGH barometer (BARIRG) increased by 4.7 pts to-15.2 pts, and is now 6.5 pts down from the respective year 2020 figure. The first quarter of a year is usually a period of seasonal slowdown, i.e. the economy tends to contract in comparison with the previous quarter. In this respect the 1st quarter of 2021 fits the pattern. Since the mid of 2018 the Polish economy has been on the downturn, the pace of which skyrocketed in the 2nd quarter of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The sharp decline of the economy has been reflected by the results of the business and consumer surveys conducted by RIED, synthetically demonstrated by BARIRG. The rise of BARIRG in the 1st quarter of 2021 is foreshadowing an increase in real GDP, however, as the economic lockdown continues, the improvement is not expected to firmly sustain.(original abstract)