What should the optimal financial structure of FDI inflows to Poland be for stimulating growth processes?
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Opublikowane:
gru 28, 2021
Słowa kluczowe:
FDI, reinvestment of earnings, equity, debt instruments, GDP, VECM
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Abstrakt
The article aims to answer a question what should the optimal financial structure of FDI inflows to Poland be for stimulating growth processes. The study on the dependence between financial components of FDI inflows and GDP for Poland covers the period 2004: Q1–2019: Q4. Results of the VAR/VECM model and forecast error variance decomposition indicated that in the optimal (growth-enhancing) structure of FDI inflows the share of equities and the reinvestment of earnings should be maximised.
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Kosztowniak, A. . (2021). What should the optimal financial structure of FDI inflows to Poland be for stimulating growth processes?. Journal of Management and Financial Sciences, (42), 25–38. https://doi.org/10.33119/JMFS.2021.42.2
Dział
Articles
Bibliografia
Compact publications
1. Carkovic, M., Levine, R. (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth? In: T. Moran, E. Graham, M. Blomström (Eds.), Does foreign direct investment promote development? (pp. 195–220). Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
2. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
3. Kufel, T. (2011). Ekonometria. Warszawa: PWN, pp. 110–111.
4. NBP (2017). Balance of Payments Statistics. Methodological notes. Warsaw NBP Department of Statistics.
5. OECD (2018). Benchmark Definition of FDI. 4th edition. Paris: OECD, pp. 60–63.
6. Piłatowska, M. (2003). Modelowanie niestacjonarnych procesów ekonomicznych. Studium metodologiczne. Toruń: Uniwersytet M. Kopernika.
Papers and studies
1. Acaravci, A., Ozturk, I. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from New EU Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2, pp. 52–67.
2. Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sayek, S. (2011). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Harvard Business School, Working Paper, 64 (1), pp. 01–083.
3. Ashraf, A., Dierk, H., Nunnenkamp, P. (2014). The Effects of Greenfield FDI and Cross-border M&As on Total Factor Productivity. MPRA Paper, 65060, pp. 1–41.
4. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., Lee, J. W. (1998). How Does Foreign Investment Affect Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45, pp. 1–21.
5. Brada, J. C., Tomšík, V. (2003). Reinvested Earnings Bias, the ’Five Percent’ Rule and the Interpretation of the Balance of Payments – With an Application to Transition Economies. William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 543, p. 22.
6. Calderón, C., Loayza, N., Servén, L. (2004). Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment and Mergers And Acquisitions: Feedback And Macroeconomic Effects. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3192, pp. 1–31.
7. Damgaard, M. L., Laursen, F., Wederinck, R. (2010). Forecasting direct investment equity income for the Danish Balance Payments. Danmark’s National Bank Working Papers No. 65, pp. 1–32.
8. Damijan, J., Knell, M., Majcen, B., Rojec, M. (2003). The Role of FDI, R&D Accumulation and Trade in Transferring Technology to Transition Countries. Economic Systems, 27, pp. 189–204.
9. Ericsson, J., Irandoust, M. (2001). On the Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Output: A Comparative Study. The International Trade Journal, 15 (1), pp. 122–132.
10. Ghebrihiwet, N. (2017). Acquisition or direct entry, technology transfer, and FDI policy liberalization. International Review of Economics & Finance, 51, pp. 455–469.
11. Gorynia, M., Nowak, J., Wolniak, R. (2005). Fostering competitiveness of polish firms: some musings on economic policy and spatial expansion. International Management Development Association, XIV, pp. 428–435.
12. Harms, P., Méon, P.‑G. (2014). Good and Bad FDI: The Growth Effects of Greenfield Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions In Developing Countries. CEB Working Paper 14/021, pp. 1–35.
13. Herzer, D., Klasen, S., Howak-Lehmann, F. (2008). In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward, Economic Modelling, 25 (5), pp. 793–810.
14. Knetsch, T. A., Nagengast, A. J. (2016). On the dynamics of the investment income balance. Deutsche Bundesbank. Discussion Paper, 21, pp. 1–36.
15. Kosztowniak, A. (2016). Verification of the relationship between FDI and GDP in Poland. Acta Oeconomica, 66 (2), pp. 307–332.
16. Lin, M., Kwan, Y. K. (2016). FDI technology spillovers, geography, and spatial diffusion. International Review of Economics & Finance, 43, pp. 257–274.
17. Liu, X., Siler, P., Wang Ch. (2000). Wei Y.: Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from UK Industry Level Panel Data. Journal of International Business Studies, 3rd Qtr., 31 (3), pp. 407–425.
18. Marona, B., Bieniek, A. (2013). Wykorzystanie modelu VECM do analizy wpływu bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych na gospodarkę Polski w latach 1996–2010. Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernici- Ekonomia, XLIV (2), pp. 333–350.
19. Mencinger, J. (2003). Does foreign direct investment always enhance economic growth? International Review for Social Sciences, Kyklos, 56 (4), pp. 491–509.
20. Misztal, P. (2012). Bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne jako czynnik wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce. Finanse, 1 (5), pp. 9–26.
21. Novotnỳ, F. (2015). Profitability life cycle of foreign direct investment and its application to the Czech Republic. Czech National Bank, Working Paper Series No. 11, pp. 1–25.
22. Novotný, F. (2018). Profitability Life Cycle of Foreign Direct Investment: Application to the Czech Republic. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54 (7), https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X. 2017.1316259, pp. 1623–1634.
23. Novotný, F., Podpiera, J. (2008). The profitability life-cycle of direct investment: an international panel study. Economic Change and Restructuring, 41 (2), pp. 143–153.
24. Saltz, I. (1992). The negative correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth in the Third World: Theory and Evidence. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 39, pp. 617–633.
25. Wangand, M., Wong, M. C. S. (2009). What Drives Economic Growth? The Case of Cross‐Border M&A and Greenfield FDI Activities. International Review for Social Sciences, 62 (2), pp. 316–330.
Internet materials
1. Eurostat (2019). Foreign-controlled enterprises in EU: value added. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/webproducts-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190411–1 [accessed: 11.04.2019].
2. NBP (2020). Balance of payments, Financial account – Direct investment. Retrieved from: http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_platniczy/bilansplatniczy_kw.html [accessed: 10.04.2020].
3. OECD (2020). OECD Stat. Retrieved from: http://stats.oecd.org/ [accessed: 10.05.2020].
4. WTO (2020). Trade in Value Added and Global Value Chains, 2019. Retrieved from: http://www.wto.org [accessed: 10.01.2020].
1. Carkovic, M., Levine, R. (2005). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth? In: T. Moran, E. Graham, M. Blomström (Eds.), Does foreign direct investment promote development? (pp. 195–220). Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
2. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
3. Kufel, T. (2011). Ekonometria. Warszawa: PWN, pp. 110–111.
4. NBP (2017). Balance of Payments Statistics. Methodological notes. Warsaw NBP Department of Statistics.
5. OECD (2018). Benchmark Definition of FDI. 4th edition. Paris: OECD, pp. 60–63.
6. Piłatowska, M. (2003). Modelowanie niestacjonarnych procesów ekonomicznych. Studium metodologiczne. Toruń: Uniwersytet M. Kopernika.
Papers and studies
1. Acaravci, A., Ozturk, I. (2012). Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from New EU Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2, pp. 52–67.
2. Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sayek, S. (2011). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Harvard Business School, Working Paper, 64 (1), pp. 01–083.
3. Ashraf, A., Dierk, H., Nunnenkamp, P. (2014). The Effects of Greenfield FDI and Cross-border M&As on Total Factor Productivity. MPRA Paper, 65060, pp. 1–41.
4. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., Lee, J. W. (1998). How Does Foreign Investment Affect Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45, pp. 1–21.
5. Brada, J. C., Tomšík, V. (2003). Reinvested Earnings Bias, the ’Five Percent’ Rule and the Interpretation of the Balance of Payments – With an Application to Transition Economies. William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 543, p. 22.
6. Calderón, C., Loayza, N., Servén, L. (2004). Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment and Mergers And Acquisitions: Feedback And Macroeconomic Effects. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3192, pp. 1–31.
7. Damgaard, M. L., Laursen, F., Wederinck, R. (2010). Forecasting direct investment equity income for the Danish Balance Payments. Danmark’s National Bank Working Papers No. 65, pp. 1–32.
8. Damijan, J., Knell, M., Majcen, B., Rojec, M. (2003). The Role of FDI, R&D Accumulation and Trade in Transferring Technology to Transition Countries. Economic Systems, 27, pp. 189–204.
9. Ericsson, J., Irandoust, M. (2001). On the Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Output: A Comparative Study. The International Trade Journal, 15 (1), pp. 122–132.
10. Ghebrihiwet, N. (2017). Acquisition or direct entry, technology transfer, and FDI policy liberalization. International Review of Economics & Finance, 51, pp. 455–469.
11. Gorynia, M., Nowak, J., Wolniak, R. (2005). Fostering competitiveness of polish firms: some musings on economic policy and spatial expansion. International Management Development Association, XIV, pp. 428–435.
12. Harms, P., Méon, P.‑G. (2014). Good and Bad FDI: The Growth Effects of Greenfield Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions In Developing Countries. CEB Working Paper 14/021, pp. 1–35.
13. Herzer, D., Klasen, S., Howak-Lehmann, F. (2008). In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward, Economic Modelling, 25 (5), pp. 793–810.
14. Knetsch, T. A., Nagengast, A. J. (2016). On the dynamics of the investment income balance. Deutsche Bundesbank. Discussion Paper, 21, pp. 1–36.
15. Kosztowniak, A. (2016). Verification of the relationship between FDI and GDP in Poland. Acta Oeconomica, 66 (2), pp. 307–332.
16. Lin, M., Kwan, Y. K. (2016). FDI technology spillovers, geography, and spatial diffusion. International Review of Economics & Finance, 43, pp. 257–274.
17. Liu, X., Siler, P., Wang Ch. (2000). Wei Y.: Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from UK Industry Level Panel Data. Journal of International Business Studies, 3rd Qtr., 31 (3), pp. 407–425.
18. Marona, B., Bieniek, A. (2013). Wykorzystanie modelu VECM do analizy wpływu bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych na gospodarkę Polski w latach 1996–2010. Acta Universitatis Nicolai Copernici- Ekonomia, XLIV (2), pp. 333–350.
19. Mencinger, J. (2003). Does foreign direct investment always enhance economic growth? International Review for Social Sciences, Kyklos, 56 (4), pp. 491–509.
20. Misztal, P. (2012). Bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne jako czynnik wzrostu gospodarczego w Polsce. Finanse, 1 (5), pp. 9–26.
21. Novotnỳ, F. (2015). Profitability life cycle of foreign direct investment and its application to the Czech Republic. Czech National Bank, Working Paper Series No. 11, pp. 1–25.
22. Novotný, F. (2018). Profitability Life Cycle of Foreign Direct Investment: Application to the Czech Republic. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54 (7), https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X. 2017.1316259, pp. 1623–1634.
23. Novotný, F., Podpiera, J. (2008). The profitability life-cycle of direct investment: an international panel study. Economic Change and Restructuring, 41 (2), pp. 143–153.
24. Saltz, I. (1992). The negative correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth in the Third World: Theory and Evidence. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 39, pp. 617–633.
25. Wangand, M., Wong, M. C. S. (2009). What Drives Economic Growth? The Case of Cross‐Border M&A and Greenfield FDI Activities. International Review for Social Sciences, 62 (2), pp. 316–330.
Internet materials
1. Eurostat (2019). Foreign-controlled enterprises in EU: value added. Retrieved from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/webproducts-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190411–1 [accessed: 11.04.2019].
2. NBP (2020). Balance of payments, Financial account – Direct investment. Retrieved from: http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_platniczy/bilansplatniczy_kw.html [accessed: 10.04.2020].
3. OECD (2020). OECD Stat. Retrieved from: http://stats.oecd.org/ [accessed: 10.05.2020].
4. WTO (2020). Trade in Value Added and Global Value Chains, 2019. Retrieved from: http://www.wto.org [accessed: 10.01.2020].