Kondycja gospodarstw domowych : I kwartał 2023 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

After three consecutive quarters of declines, the IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator increased in the 1st quarter of 2023 by 12.2 pts to -31.3 pts, the value close to that of the same period of the previous year, and the highest since the 3rd quarter of 2021. Importantly, all the four components of IRGKGD increased, with three of them rising by double digits (in the case of the balance of expected Poland's general economic situation, by as many as 17.8 pts). However, it is far too early to conclude whether we are dealing with a reversal of the 2022 downward trend. After a sharp deterioration in households' unemployment expectations in the second half of 2022 (in Q3 and Q4 the balance grew by the total of 20.6 pts), in the 1st quarter of 2023 consumers' assessment of the prospects for the domestic labor market improved significantly. The balance equals now to 38.4 pts, which is 13.1 pts higher than in the previous quarter and only 1.6 pts lower than a year earlier. At the same time consumers' inflation expectations declined. The balance dropped by 18.7 pts to 41.1 pts quarterly, and is now 19.3 pts lower than a year earlier and as many as 30 pts lower than in the record 4 th quarter of 2021. This is thus the lowest balance since Q4 2018 (24.8 pts) (original abstract)