KONDYCJA GOSPODARSTW DOMOWYCH IV kwartał 2023 BADANIA KONIUNKTURY GOSPODARCZEJ INSTYTUTU ROZWOJU GOSPODARCZEGO SGH

Abstract

The 4th quarter of 2023 turned out to be the fourth consecutive period covered by the survey in which the value of the IRGKGD consumer confidence indicator rose, this time to a level of -13.5 pts, i.e. 4.4 pts higher than that of the previous quarter and as many as 30.1 pts higher than that of the same period in 2022. At the same time, this is the second highest value of this balance in the four-year period (in Q1 2020, the IRGKGD stood at -9.6 pts). The trend of improvement in household sentiments, which has been ongoing since the beginning of 2023, especially in comparison with the second half of 2022, therefore turns out to be not only significant (over the whole of 2023, the IRGKGD increased by as much as over 30 pts in total), but also sustainable (the average value of the balance for 2023 is as much as 15 points higher than the average for 2022: -21.9 pts versus -36.9 pts). Importantly, in Q4 2023, the values of three of the four components of the indicator improved. In Q4 2023, households’ expectations regarding the outlook for the Polish economy in the coming months also improved very significantly. The value of the balance of responses to that question rose by as many as 13.3 pts on a quarter-on-quarter basis, to -9.6 pts, a record 47.1 pts higher than a year earlier and the highest since Q4 2019 (then: -4.8 pts). Significantly, unlike in the previous few quarters, in the October 2023 survey, the structure of respondents’ answers indicates that we are no longer dealing with a decrease in pessimism, but with an actual increase in optimism: in the current period, compared to the previous quarter, the percentage of respondents predicting that the country’s economic situation will improve “very much” or “somewhat” increased by 9.4 percentage points (from 21.3 to 30.7%). In Q4 2023, the value of the balance of responses to the question on the current cost of living of households, at 39.1 pts, was 9.6 pts lower than in the previous survey period, as much as 24.4 pts lower than a year ago and the lowest since Q2 2021 (then: 37.3 pts). This fourth consecutive reduction in the value of this balance appears to be closely linked to the macroeconomic data: in the month in which the survey was conducted (October 2023), the Statistics Poland’s monthly consumer price index rose by 6.6% relative to the corresponding month of the previous year, marking the lowest rate of price increases in this respect since June 2022 (then: 5.5%). However, the aforementioned value of the balance is still almost twice as high as its long-term average of 21.2 pts. While households’ expectations of a possible rise in unemployment improved in the first three quarters of 2023, respondents’ pessimism in assessing the prospects for the domestic labor market increased slightly in Q4 2023. Over the period covered by the survey, the value of the balance of responses rose by 4.3 pts quarter-on-quarter, to 25.1 pts. However, this is still as much as 26.3 pts lower than a year earlier, 13.7 pts lower than the average of this balance for 2020-2023 (at 38.8 pts) and 2.0 pts lower than the long-term average for this balance (27.1 pts).