Koniunktura w budownictwie : I kwartał 2021 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

The construction confidence indicator in the construction industry IRG SGH (CCI) is currently 12.8 points, so it is 10.4 points higher than in the fourth quarter of last year, and compared to the first quarter of 2020 it is only 1.8 points lower. Thus, the pessimistic forecasts formulated by construction companies three months ago did not come true. The results of the current quarter are in every analyzed aspect better than the fourth quarter of 2020, although -in line with the cyclical nature of construction -deterioration would be typical for the first quarter. In October and November 2020, however, we saw an extremely strong pandemic impact and the possibility of another lockdown, and now not only the number of infections has decreased, but vaccination against covid-19 has begun, which announces gradual return to economic normality. The downward trend in the prices of services has been observed in the construction industry for over two years. The current quarter brings a change in this respect, because compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, the current price balance is 6.9 points higher. In the coming quarter, prices of construction services can be expected to increase further -the forecast in total is 5.9 points, 3.1 points for the private sector and 27.9 points for the public sector. Construction companies continue to negatively assess their own financial situation. The current financial balance is -29.0 points, so it fell by 8.8 points compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the first quarter of 2020, the decline in the balance is as much as -22.9 points. The most difficult financial situation occurs in private companies, especially in micro-enterprises, for which the balance is equal to -40.1 points. Construction companies assess the current economic situation in the country asnegatively as in the fourth quarter of 2020. The current value of the balance of assessments of the economy in total amounts to -63.1 points. It is worth noting that compared to the first quarter of last year, the current ratings are as much as 37.7 points lower. Construction companies' opinions on the situation in their own industry are relatively better. The value of the balance during the last quarter increased by 9.1 points and amounts to -38.2 points, and compared to the first quarter of last year, the decrease is only 2.4 points. Compared to the previous quarter, the nuisance of the main barriers limiting the production activity of construction companies has not changed. First, construction companies indicate unstable legal regulations (45.0% of respondents), then tax burdens (44.1%) and payment gridlocks (37.8%). It is worth noting that since the beginning of this study in 1994, unstable law has never been the main barrier limiting the activity of construction companies and -what is more -indicated by almost every second company. (original abstract)