Koniunktura w budownictwie : II kwartał 2022 Badania Koniunktury Gospodarczej Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the second quarter of 2022, the business climate index in the construction industry IRG SGH (IRGCON) has a positive value of 3.5 points, so it is 11 points higher than in the previous quarter. This increase should be associated with the beginning of the spring and summer season, favorable for the construction industry. The current economic situation in construction, however, is still significantly worse than in the years 2017-2019, preceding the pandemic, for which the average value of the economic situation index for the second quarter is 21.8 points, and the average growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter is 27.0 points The main reasons for the unfavorable economic situation in the construction industry in the current quarter are problems with the supply of raw materials and construction materials and their high prices, as well as the outflow of workers from Ukraine. Supply chains, broken during the pandemic, result in a shortage of materials necessary for production. Their high prices, on the other hand, are one of the most serious barriers limiting the activity of the construction industry since 2018. It is worth noting that in the third quarter of 2018, the percentage of companies indicating this barrier as problem number 1 was 49.7%, and now, with the increasingly faster inflation, it has reached the level of 76.7%. As for Ukrainian citizens working in construction on the basis of work permits, according to the data of the Ministry of Family and Social Policy, in 2021 their number in the construction sector was 373,000. They were employed mainly in private companies, and the current employment balance for the private sector is -2.3 points compared to the average of 14.1 points in Q2 in 2017-2019. (original abstract)