Koniunktura w bankowości: Kwiecień - Czerwiec 2015 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 1th quarter of 2015 the IRG SGH banking confidence indicator (IRGBAN) increased from -28.6 pts to 17.4 pts. The increase has been mostly caused by an over 60-point rise in both balances of the result on banking activity and profits. Additionally, the third component of the indicator - employment, also contributed to the increase. This marks the return to long-term tendency after the relatively weak previous quarter. There are few additional bright spots in the condition of the banking sector at the beginning of 2015. First of all, in the area of the quality of liabilities stabilization has been observed and there is no potential threat from it to banks' profits. Second, clients still show interest in banking services. Third, it seems that the role of barriers associated with high cost of capital has started to decline, which is confirmed by the decreased percentage of banks reporting such problems. Yet, according to the respondents from the sector, banks still face some major issues. One of the most significant is decreased ability to maintain spreads between credit and deposit. The second issue is associated with an increasing impact of legal barriers to functioning of the sector, which is accompanied by negative influence of the National Bank of Poland policy. (original abstract)