Koniunktura w bankowości : październik - grudzień 2016 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 3rd quarter of 2016 the IRG SGH banking confidence indicator (IRGBAN) decreased from +38,7 pts to -12,3 pts. This was mainly caused by a decrease in the balances of the result on banking activity and of profits. The third component of the indicator - the balance of employment contributed to the decrease to a lesser extent. Banks face some very serious issues now. The most significant ones are the new taxation based on assets, and constant pressure on FX mortgage loans conversion to PLN. Both factors combined may seriously diminish banks' profits. However, the FX conversion law project was introduced in the new form that requires banks only to pay back FX spreads, while conversion is to be achieved by changing the risk weights on those assets. Anyway, putting all those factors together, banks tend to be very pessimistic about their future business prospects. (original abstract)