KONIUNKTURA W FINANSACH I kwartał 2023 BADANIA KONIUNKTURY GOSPODARCZEJ INSTYTUTU ROZWOJU GOSPODARCZEGO SGH

Abstract

In the 1st quarter of 2023 the financial confidence indicator (IRGFIN) quarterly increased by 11.9 pts to 16.9 pts. It is, however, expected to fall in the 2nd quarter 2023 to -3.5 pts. Its main component, the banking confidence indicator grew by 21 pts to 14.3 pts, but is expected to fall (to -16.7 pts) in the short horizon. The majority of the key survey balances improved on the quarterly basis. Legal barriers, monetary policy and poor economic situation of customers, resulting in reduced demand for financial services, continued to be assessed as the main factors unfavourable to financial activity. The majority of the survey respondents do not expect the zloty to change in the 2nd quarter 2023, and all the surveyed predict the central bank interest rates to remain unchanged. A half of the surveyed expect the inflation rate (CPI) to rise in the next quarter, and 60% of the survey participants anticipate the monetary base to continue growing. On the whole, the financial sector of the Polish economy continues to record relatively poor performance, and no significant changes to the situation are expected to happen in the second quarter (original abstract)