KONIUNKTURA W FINANSACH: II KWARTAŁ 2023 BADANIA KONIUNKTURY GOSPODARCZEJ INSTYTUTU ROZWOJU GOSPODARCZEGO SGH

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2023, compared to the previous quarter, the financial confidence indicator (IRGFIN) decreased by 41.7 pts to -24.8 pts. It is, however, expected to increase in the 3rd quarter of 2023 to -1.5 pts. Its main component, the banking confidence indicator dropped by 36.2 pts to -21.9 pts, but is expected to go up to -7.1 pts in the next quarter. Most of the key survey balances declined in the 2nd quarter of 2023. Various legal barriers, followed by difficult economic situation of customers, continued to be assessed as the main factors negatively affecting financial activity. Slightly less significant, but still important, barriers indicated by the surveyed companies were: monetary policy, tax burden, insufficient demand on financial services and the policy of the financial supervisory institutions. The majority of the survey respondents expect the zloty to appreciate in the 3rd quarter of 2023, and almost all of them predict that the central bank interest rates will remain unchanged. Most of them expect the inflation rate (CPI) to fall in the next quarter while 60% anticipate the money supply to continue growing. Overall, in the 2nd quarter the Polish financial sector recorded very poor performance, but the situation is expected to improve slightly over the next quarter.