W poszukiwaniu dywersyfikacji. Stan i perspektywy rozwoju polsko-skandynawskiej wymiany handlowej

Abstract

The paper aims at analysing the characteristics of the Polish-Scandinavian trade and at evaluating prospects of its further development in the context of the growing diversification of Polish exporting markets. The motivation behind this issue is rooted in the high dependence of the Polish economy on the German market. This brings about a threat to economic security through a specific technological dependence, which may result in a lot of challenges characteristic for the middle-income trap. This problem can be explained by the thesis of the blight of German proximity. The features of intensive trade relations, mostly in the motor vehicle industry and machinery (to some extent also in the electronic and electrical sector), require finding convenient locations for subsidiaries and further suppliers within corporate added-value chains. It should help exploiting current cost and effciency advantages of host economies and thus block the development of potential innovative alternatives induced by the too weak domestic support. For this reason, it is justified to intensify trade relations with other countries whose markets may be attractive for Polish exporters. They should also have competencies and advantages which are insufficient in the Polish economy. Hence, this transfer of knowledge through the trade cooperation (the concept of learning by exporting) may have an impact on the national innovation system. Choosing Scandinavian countries is coherent with the attempts to diversify the structure of exporting markets and is one of the critical dimensions of enhanced cooperation in the region of the Baltic Sea. The research on the trade relations covers the period 2001-2015 together with the original insight into the prospects for their further development. For this purpose, the trade data of the International Trade Centre were used. Their disaggregation (2-, 4- and 6-digit) within the Harmonised System made possible the identification of the most important sectors, product clusters and even specific commodities which may be Polish exporting hits. Another dimension of the analysis covers the technological intensity of the Polish exports and imports with Scandinavian countries, the structure of Polish trade balance and the intensity of the intra-industry trade (Grubel-Lloyd index) together with its subcategories (horizontal, vertical-low quality, vertical-high quality) in the chapters with the highest share in bilateral trade.