Koniunktura w bankowości : styczeń - marzec 2016 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2015 the IRG SGH banking confidence indicator (IRGBAN) decreased from 30.6 pts to -19.3 pts. The result was mainly caused by a decrease in the balances of the result on banking activity and of profits. The third component of the indicator, the balance of employment, contributed to the decrease to a lesser degree. This makes a strong increase in the indicator's volatility in the last quarters. According to the respondents from the sector, banks now face some very serious issues. The most significant ones are a new tax on assets and proposed law that charges banks with the costs of FX mortgage loans conversion to PLN. Both factors combined may seriously diminish banks' profits. There are, however, some bright spots in the condition of the banking sector. The quality of liabilities stabilized and there is no potential threat from it to banks' profits. Still, putting all those factors together, banks tend to have a very pessimistic view on their future activity. (original abstract)