Estymacja pośrednia w demografii a Narodowy Spis Powszechny 2011 w Polsce
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The paper presents a brief overview of applications of indirect estimation techniques in demography and possibilities of their extension. A special emphasis is placed on new challenges established on the ground of heretofore experiences.
When conducting a demographic analysis, it is natural to refer to the development of corresponding demographic processes in other populations, that were characterised by a similar demographic situation in the past. It is also common to analyse data from different available sources, such as population censuses, vital statistics, statistical registration or specific surveys. The core of indirect estimation is data assessment, comparison of applied survey methodology, analysis of definitions used in different surveys, search for differences and their causes, and taking all of the above into account, implementing such estimation techniques that cut down the gap between available statistical data and the necessary information. Currently, demographers propose to use indirect estimation not only to estimate population counts for small areas in between-census periods. The novelty is the new population census methodology based on population registers and indirect estimation based on sample survey data. Typically, demographic methods use mainly administrative and census data, while the current proposition involves also sample survey data in conjunction with other auxiliary population information.
The organisation of the paper is as follows. Section 2 discusses determinants that enabled the application of indirect estimation in demography and the needs for such estimates. The focus is on the variety and quality of population data sources, the disturbance factors and their influence on the demographic processes, as well as a coherent methodology of demographic analysis. Section 3 reviews different indirect estimation methods used in demography, according to J.N.K Rao and the UN demographic experts. The symptomatic accounting techniques, regression symptomatic procedures and dual-system estimation of population are presented. According to the UN manual, the indirect techniques are reviewed on the example of its use in fertility analyses. We refer to estimation of fertility indicators based on information on children ever born (according to E. Arriaga), L. Henry method for estimation of marital fertility, and the ‘own children’ method developed by G. Feeney, W.H. Grabill and L.-J. Cho. The following section includes examples of indirect estimation methods applied by Polish researchers. The concluding remarks discuss changes in the methodological approach to the population census of 2011 in Poland, in the context of an extensive use of indirect estimation techniques.
Article Details
References
[2] Bogue D.J., 1950, A Technique for Making Extensive Postcensal Estimates, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 45, s. 149–163.
[3] Bogue D.J., Duncan B.D., 1959, A Composite Method of Estimating Post Censal Population of Small Areas, Sex and Colour, Vital Statistics-Special Report 47, No. 6, National Office of Vital Statistics, Washington DC.
[4] Cicali D., De Santis G., 2006, Estimating cohort fertility levels and differentials by educational level with the own-children method and pseudo-panels: Italy, cohorts 1945–55, Università degli studi, di Firenze, Dipartimento Statistico, Firenze. http://www.ds.unifi.it/ricerca/interessi/demografia/bassa-fecondita/messina/pubblicazioni/Cicali01.pdf
[5] Cieślak M., 1983, Prognozowanie analogowe, [w:] Cieślak M. (red.), Nieklasyczne metody prognozowania, PWN, Warszawa.
[6] Cieślak M., 2001, Prognozowanie analogowe, [w:] Cieślak M. (red.), Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowanie, PWN, Warszawa.
[7] Domański C., Pruska K., 2001, Metody statystyki małych obszarów, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.
[8] Ericksen E.P., 1974, A Regression Method for Estimating Population Changes of Local Areas, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 69, s. 867–875.
[9] Ericksen E.P., Kadane J.B., 1985, Estimating the Population in a Census Year (with discussion), „Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 80, s. 98–131.
[10] Ericksen E.P., Kadane J.B., 1987, Sensitivity Analysis of Local Estimates of Undercount in the 1980 U.S. Census, [w:] Platek R., Rao J.N.K., Särndal C.E., Singh M.P. (red.), Small Area Statistics. An International Symposium, John Wiley & Sons, New York – Chichester – Brisbane – Toronto – Singapore, s. 23–45.
[11] EURAREA Project Reference Volume, 2004, raport końcowy przygotowany w ramach Europejskiego Projektu Badawczego IST 2000-26290 EURAREA – Enhancing Small Area Estimation Techniques to Meet European Needs, Office for National Statistics, UK, London, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/eurarea/download.asp
[12] Fay R.E., Herriot R.A., 1979, Estimates for Income in Small Places: An Application of James-Stein Procedures to Census Data, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 74, s. 269-277.
[13] Feeney G., 1975, The Own-Children Method of Estimating age Specific Fertility Rates: Lecture Notes Prepared for A Demographic Analysis and Data Evaluation Workshop, Department of Statistics, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 10–28 March, 1975, G. Feeney, The East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, maszynopis powielony.
[14] Feeney G., Chambers R., 1977, Log-Linear models for small area estimation, Australian Bureau of Statistics, maszynopis powielony.
[15] Ghosh M., Rao J.N.K., 1994, Small Area Estimation: An Appraisal, „Statistical Science”, Vol. 9, No. 1.
[16] Gołata E., 1990, Studia nad terytorialnym zróżnicowaniem płodności kobiet w Polsce, Szkoła Główna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, seria Monografie i Opracowania nr 322, Warszawa.
[17] Gołata E., 2004, Estymacja pośrednia bezrobocia na lokalnym rynku pracy, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.
[18] Gołata E., Paradysz J., 2007, Demograficzne korzenie i perspektywy statystyki małych obszarów, [w:] Ostasiewicz W. (red.), Statystyka w praktyce społeczno-gospodarczej, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Langego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław, s. 89–108.
[19] Grabill W.H., Cho L.-J., 1965, Methodology for the measurement of current fertility from population data on young children, “Demography”, No. 1, s. 50–73.
[20] Grabill W.H., Cho L.-J., Bogue D.J., 1970, Differential Current Fertility in the United States, Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
[21] Henry L., 1953, Fécondité des mariages. Nouvelle méthode de mesure, “Travaux et Documents”, No. 16, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris.
[22] Henry L., 1972, Démographie. Analyse et modèles, Larouse, Paris.
[23] James W., Stein C., 1961, Estimation with Quadratic Loss. Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, University of California Press, Berkeley, s. 361–379.
[24] Jóźwiak J., Paradysz J., 1993, Demograficzny wymiar aborcji, „Studia Demograficzne”, Nr 1.
[25] Kędelski M., 1990, Fikcja demograficzna w Polsce i RFN(Ze studiów nad migracjami zagranicznymi), „Studia Demograficzne”, Nr 1(99), s. 21–55.
[26] Kędelski M., Paradysz J., 2006, Demografia, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.
[27] Kordos J., 1963, Rozkład ludności pozarolniczej według wysokości dochodów na osobę w 1960 r., „Biuletyn KPZK PAN”, nr 8.
[28] Kurkiewicz J. (red.), 2008, Procesy demograficzne i metody ich analizy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie, Kraków (w druku).
[29] Marker D.A., 1983, Organization of Small Area Estimators, Proceedings of Survey Research Methods Section, s. 409–414, American Statistical Association, Washington, DC.
[30] Narodowy Spis Powszechny Ludności i Mieszkań 2011. Założenia metodyczne, 2007, Materiał na posiedzenie Rady Programowej narodowego spisu powszechnego ludności i mieszkań 2011 r., 4 września 2007.
[31] O’Hare W., 1976, Report on Multiple Regression Method for Making Population Estimates, “Demography”, No. 13, s. 369–379.
[32] Okólski M., 1997, Statistics of Immigration in Poland. Conditions of Correctness, Assessment of the Current State, Proposals of New Solutions, Working Papers ISS, “Prace Migracyjne”, Uniwersytet Warszawski, Warszawa.
[33] Paradysz J., 1990, Reprodukcja ludności w Polsce. Studium metodologiczno-poznawcze, Szkoła Główna Planowania i Statystyki, Warszawa.
[34] Paradysz J., 1992, Dzietność kobiet w Polsce, Narodowy Spis Powszechny 1988, Materiały i opracowania statystyczne, GUS, Warszawa.
[35] Paradysz J., 2001, Estymacja dla małych obszarów w statystyce regionalnej, [w:] Zeliaś A. (red.), Przestrzenno-czasowe modelowanie i prognozowanie zjawisk gospodarczych, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Krakowie, Kraków, s. 193–209.
[36] Pressat R., 1966, Analiza demograficzna, PWN, Warszawa.
[37] Purcell N.J., Kish L., 1979, Estimation for small domains, “Biometrics”, Vol. 35.
[38] Purcell N.J., Kish L., 1980, Postcensal estimates for local areas (domains), “International Statistical Review”, Vol. 48, s. 3–18.
[39] Rao J.N.K., 1999, Some Recent Advances in Model-Based Small Area Estimation, „Survey Methodology”, Vol. 25, Statistics Canada.
[40] Rao J.N.K., 2003, Small Area Estimation, Wiley.
[41] Rivers N.W., Serow W.J., Lee A.S., Goldsmith H.F. (eds.), 1989, Small Area Analysis: Estimating Total Population, Rockville, MD: National Institute of Mental Health.
[42] Sakson B., 2002, Wpływ „niewidzialnych” migracji zagranicznych lat osiemdziesiątych na struktury demograficzne Polski, seria Monografie i Opracowania nr 481, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa.
[43] Schmitt, R.C., 1952, Short-Cut Methods of Estimating County Population, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, 47(June), s. 232–38.
[44] Schmitt R.C., Crosetti A.H., 1954, Accuracy of the Ratio Correlation Method of Estimating Poscensal Population, “Land Economics”, Vol. 30, s. 279–280.
[45] Shapiro S., Schachter J., 1964, Birth Registration Completeness in the United States and Geographic Areas, 1950, Vital Statistics Special Reports, Selected Studies.
[46] UNECE, 2006, Conference of European Statisticians. Recommendations for the 2010 Censuses of Population and Housing, prepared in cooperation with the EUROSTAT, United Nations, New York and Geneva. http://www.unece.org/stats/publ.htm
[47] UN, 2005, Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. Population and Development in the United Nations System, podręcznik dostępny tylko w wersji elektronicznej. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/Manual_X/Manual_X.html
[48] UN, 2007, Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses. Revision 2, Statistical papers Series M. No. 67/Rev.2, United Nations, New York.
[49] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/docs/P&R2_February%2012%202007.pdf
[50] UNPF, 1993, Readings in Population Research Methodology, published for United Nations Population Fund by Social Development Center, Chicago, Illinois.
[51] Willekens F., 1994, Monitoring International Migration Flows in Europe. Towards a Statistical Data Base Combining Data From Different Sources, “European Journal of Population”, Vol. 10, No. 1a, s. 1–42.
[52] Zidek J.V., 1982, A Review of Methods for Estimating Population of Local Areas, Technical Report 82-4, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.