Estimation of fertility in Poland and of Polish born women in the United Kingdom
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Published:
Jun 10, 2016
Keywords:
Population Census Quality, Population Estimates, Usually Resident Population, Polish Migration, Migrant Fertility
Main Article Content
Abstract
The aim of research presented in the paper is to explore the comparison of Total Fertility Rates of Polish women in England and Wales, with the rates for Polish women who are residents in Poland. Population censuses in Poland and the United Kingdom in 2011 provide information for such comparisons and show higher fertility rates of Polish women abroad than in Poland.
Two specific questions were investigated. The first one is the question of the number of children born in Poland. It was observed that the number estimated on the basis of census data was not consistent with birth records in the register. The second question concerns the number of the usually resident population in Poland. We provide quality assessment of 2011 population census in Poland, estimates of actual and usually resident population. Based on thorough evaluation, a correction of the population estimates is proposed (RAF). Due to non-response and data omissions, the idea of Small Domain Estimation is applied with two a priori age and sex distributions: from the Polish Census Survey and upon the UK census.
Fertility in Poland is estimated with regard to usually resident population published on the Census Hub, our RAF estimates and LFS data. The estimates of women at reproductive age differ for over 495,000, what cause certain discrepancies in TFR. Additionally we analyse changes in timing of birth and provide tempo adjusted TFR. The paper shows consequences of population estimates for measuring fertility. It was found that depending on the population estimates TFR in Poland differs from 1.31 for actual population to 1.45 for RAF estimates and 1.63 for tempo-adjusted TFR.
Via detailed empirical examination of the usually resident population estimates in Poland we show inconsistencies resulting from the flexibility in interpretation of definitions given by EU 1260/2013 and specific regulations of individual countries.
Article Details
How to Cite
Gołata, E. . (2016). Estimation of fertility in Poland and of Polish born women in the United Kingdom. Studia Demograficzne, (1(169), pp. 13–38. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2016.1.1
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[37] Sobotka T., 2008, The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe [in:] Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe, Book I Demographic Research. vol. 19, art. 9. Available at: http://www.demographic-research.org.
[38] Trevena P., 2009, ‘New’ Polish migration to the UK: A synthesis of existing evidence, Centre for Population Change Working Paper 3/2009, Available at: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/72026/.
[39] Waller L., Berrington A., Raymer J., 2012, Is the Fertility of Polish Women Higher in the UK than in Poland? CPC working paper – Understanding recent migrant fertility in the United Kingdom, Available at: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers/pdf/2012_WP27_Understanding_Recent_Migrant_Fertility_Waller_et_al.pdf.
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[41] White A., 2011, The mobility of Polish families in the West of England: translocalism and attitudes to return, “Studia Migracyjne-Przegląd Polonijny”, no. 1/2011, 11–33, Special issue on migration from Poland to the UK.
[42] Wilson C., Sobotka T., Williamson L., Boyle P., 2013, Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe, “Population and Development Review”, vol. 39, no. 1, 131–157.
[43] Zeng Y., Land K.C., 2002, Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of Ryder’s basic translation equation, “Demography”, no. 39, 269–285.
[44] Zumpe J., Dormon O., Jefferies J., 2012, Childbearing among UK born and non-UK born women living in the UK, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_283876.pdf.
[2] Baranowska A., Bober M., Bukowski M., 2007, Mobilność przestrzenna [Spatial mobility], [in:]
[3] M. Bukowski (ed.), Zatrudnienie w Polsce 2006 [Employment in Poland 2006], part III, Departament Analiz Ekonomicznych i Prognoz Ministerstwo Pracy i Polityki Społecznej, Warsaw. Available at: http://www.mpips.gov.pl/gfx/mpips/userfiles/File/Raporty/zatrudnienie%202006/cz%203%20n.pdf.
[4] Bongaarts J., Feeney G., 1998, On the quantum and tempo of Fertility, “Population and Development Review”, vol. 24, no. 2, 271–291.
[5] Bongaarts J., Feeney G., 2005, The Quantum and Tempo of Life – Cycle Events, Policy Research division, Working Papers No 207, Population Council.
[6] CSO 2008, Informacja o rozmiarach i kierunkach emigracji z Polski w latach 2004–2007 [Information about the sizes and directions of Polish emigration in the years 2004–2007], GUS, Warsaw.
[7] CSO 2011, Wyniki wstępne Narodowego Spisu Powszechnego Ludności i Mieszkań 2011 [Preliminary results of the National Census of Population and Housing 2011], GUS, Warsaw 22 December 2011.
[8] CSO 2011a, Aktywność ekonomiczna ludności Polski. I kwartał 2011 [Labour Force Survey in Poland. I Quarter 2011], Warsaw 2011.
[9] CSO 2012, Wyniki Narodowego Spisu Powszechnego Ludności i Mieszkań 2011. Podstawowe informacje o sytuacji demograficzno-społecznej ludności Polski oraz zasobach mieszkaniowych. Opracowanie przygotowane na Kongres Demograficzny w dniach 22–23 marca 2012 r. [The results of the National Census of Population and Housing 2011. Basic information about the demographic and social situation of the Polish population and housing stock. Study prepared for the Demographic Congress, Warsaw 22 March 2012], GUS, Warsaw.
[10] CSO 2012a, Raport z Wyników. Narodowy Spis Powszechny Ludności i Mieszkań 2011 [The report of the results. The National Census of Population and Housing 2011], GUS, Warsaw.
[11] CSO 2013, Migracje zagraniczne ludności. Narodowy Spis Powszechny Ludności i Mieszkań 2011 [International migration of the population. The National Census of Population and Housing 2011], GUS, Warsaw.
[12] CSO 2013a, Ludność i gospodarstwa domowe. Stan i struktura społeczno-ekonomiczna [Population and households. Size and socio-economic structure], GUS Warsaw November 2013.
[13] CSO 2013b, Ludność. Stan i struktura demograficzno-społeczna [Population. Size and socio-demographic structure], GUS Warsaw February 2013.
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[16] Dormon O., 2014, Childbearing of UK and non-UK born women living in the UK – 2011 census data, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/fertility-analysis/childbearing-of-uk-and-non-uk-bornwomen-living-in-the-uk/2011-census-data/article–childbearing-of-uk-and-non-uk-born-women-inengland-and-wales-using-2011-census-data.html.
[17] Dubuc S., 2012, Immigration to the UK from High-Fertility Countries: Intergenerational Adaptation and Fertility Convergence, “Population and Development Review”, vol. 38, no. 2, 353–368.
[18] Ediev D., Coleman D., Scherbov S., 2014, New Measures of Population Reproduction for an Era of High Migration, “Population, Space and Place”, vol. 20, 622–645. Published online 18 June 2013 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/psp.1799.
[19] EU 1260/2013, Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 Of The European Parliament And Of The Council of 20 November 2013 on European Demographic Statistics, Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:330:0039:0043:EN:PDF.
[20] Golata E., 2014, New paradigm in statistics and population census quality, European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Q2014 in Vienna, Austria. Available at: http://www.q2014.at/fileadmin/user_upload/GOLATA_NEW.pdf.
[21] Hoorens S., Clift J., Staetsk, L., Jant, B., Diepeveen S., Morgan M., Grant J., 2011, Low fertility in Europe. Is there still reason to worry?, RAND Europe Monograph, MG-1080-RE. Available at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1080.pdf .
[22] Janta B., 2013, Polish migrants’ reproductive behaviour in the United Kingdom, “Studia migracyjne – Przegląd Polonijny”, vol. 39, no. 3, 63–96.
[23] Jóźwiak J., Kotowska I.E., Matysiak A., 2010, Czy liczba urodzeń w Polsce musi spadać? [Does the number of births in Poland need to fall?], paper presented at the seminar on 31 March 2010, Central Statistical Office, Warsaw, Available at: http://stat.gov.pl/cps/rde/xbcr/gus/POZ_GUS__sem_31-03-_2010.pdf.
[24] Kotowska I.E., Jóźwiak J., Matysiak A. and Baranowska A., 2008, Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes, “Demographic Research”, vol. 19, no. 22, 795–854.
[25] Kotowska I.E. (ed.), 2009, Strukturalne i kulturowe uwarunkowania aktywności zawodowej kobiet w Polsce [Structural and cultural determinants women’s economic activity in Poland], Wydawnictwo naukowe SCHOLAR, Warsaw.
[26] Kotowska I.E., 2014, Dobry klimat dla rodziny – czy jest szansa na wzrost dzietności kobiet w Polsce? [Good climate for the family – is there any chance to increase fertility in Poland?], “Studia Demograficzne”, no. 2/164, 3–10.
[27] Kurkiewicz J., Stonawski M., Węgrzyn D., 2004, Ocena demograficznych konsekwencji zmian płodności i umieralności w Polsce w okresie transformacji ekonomiczno-społecznej [Evaluation of demographic consequences of changes in fertility and mortality rates in Poland during the economic and social transformation], “Studia Demograficzne”, no. 1/145, 25–54.
[28] Lübke C., 2015, How Migration Affects the Timing of Childbearing: The Transition to a First Birth Among Polish Women in Britain, “European Journal of Population” (2015) 31:1–20. DOI 10.1007/s10680-014-9326-9.
[29] Matysiak A., Tymicki K., 2009, Educational attainment and fertility decline in Poland. an analysis with use of cross-sectional and retrospective data, research report, Warsaw School of Economics, SGH, ISiD, Warsaw 2009.
[30] Matysiak A., Baranowska-Rataj A., Mynarska M., Rybinska A., Styrc M., 2013, Między zmianą światopoglądową a ograniczeniami życia codziennego: Jakie przyczyny przemian rodziny w Polsce? Jakie rekomendacje dla polityki? [Between the change in worldview and the constraints of everyday life: What causes transformation of the family in Poland? What recommendations for policy?], Instytut Statystyki i Demografii Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Available at: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/ISiD/projekty/famwell/konferencja/Documents/Broszura_wersja_www.pdf.
[31] ONS 2012, Births and Deaths in England and Wales, 2011 (Final), Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_279934.pdf (released 17 October 2012).
[32] ONS 2013, Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_310441.pdf (released 16 May 2013).
[33] ONS 2013a, Births and Deaths in England and Wales, 2012, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_317196.pdf (released 10 July 2013).
[34] ONS 2014, Births in England and Wales by Parents’ Country of Birth, 2013, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/parents--country-of-birth--england-and-wales/2013/stb-births-by-cob-2013.html (released 28 August 2014).
[35] Pustulka P., 2012, Polish Mothers on the Move: Transnationality and Discourses of Gender, Care, and Co-residentiality Requirement in the Narratives of Polish Women Raising Children in the West, “Annales Universitatis Paedagogicae Cracoviensis. Studia Sociologica IV” (2012), Folia 118, Available at: http://www.ifis.up.krakow.pl/studia_sociologica/images/SS_IV_2/Pustulka.pdf.
[36] Ryder N.B., 1964, The process of demographic translation, “Demography”, vol. 1, 74–82.
[37] Sobotka T., 2008, The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe [in:] Childbearing Trends and Policies in Europe, Book I Demographic Research. vol. 19, art. 9. Available at: http://www.demographic-research.org.
[38] Trevena P., 2009, ‘New’ Polish migration to the UK: A synthesis of existing evidence, Centre for Population Change Working Paper 3/2009, Available at: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/72026/.
[39] Waller L., Berrington A., Raymer J., 2012, Is the Fertility of Polish Women Higher in the UK than in Poland? CPC working paper – Understanding recent migrant fertility in the United Kingdom, Available at: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers/pdf/2012_WP27_Understanding_Recent_Migrant_Fertility_Waller_et_al.pdf.
[40] Waller L., Berrington A., Raymer J., 2014, New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom, “Journal of Population Research”, vol. 31, no. 2, 131–150, DOI: 10.1007/s12546-014-9125-5.
[41] White A., 2011, The mobility of Polish families in the West of England: translocalism and attitudes to return, “Studia Migracyjne-Przegląd Polonijny”, no. 1/2011, 11–33, Special issue on migration from Poland to the UK.
[42] Wilson C., Sobotka T., Williamson L., Boyle P., 2013, Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe, “Population and Development Review”, vol. 39, no. 1, 131–157.
[43] Zeng Y., Land K.C., 2002, Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of Ryder’s basic translation equation, “Demography”, no. 39, 269–285.
[44] Zumpe J., Dormon O., Jefferies J., 2012, Childbearing among UK born and non-UK born women living in the UK, Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_283876.pdf.