Short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age-specific fertility rates in Poland
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Abstract
The article examines the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly age specific fertility rates in Poland using data for the period 1995–2022. The pandemic unfolded against the backdrop of a long-term decline in fertility and coincided with additional sources of social and economic instability – including the tightening of abortion law, rising inflation and the escalation of the war in Ukraine – all of which may have further shaped reproductive decisions. The analysis employs monthly birth data by mother’s age combined with interpolated female population counts, and applies the TRAMO-SEATS procedure and SARIMA models to estimate long-term trends and generate projections for the pandemic and immediate post- pandemic years. These projections are then compared with the observed values.
The findings indicate that the actual number of births in 2020–2022 fell markedly below the projections derived from pre-pandemic trends. The largest discrepancies occur among women aged 35–39 and 40–44, suggesting that the pandemic particularly intensified postponement in age groups facing narrower reproductive windows. Although fertility among women aged 30–39 had been rising gradually over the previous decades, these increases were insufficient to offset declines among younger cohorts. The forecasts for 2023–2024 also slightly overestimate births, pointing to a continuation of persistently low fertility.
The study highlights that COVID-19 affected fertility both directly – through lockdown measures, infection risks, and disruptions to medical services – and indirectly, by amplifying economic and psychological uncertainty. At the same time, the observed declines may signal a deeper demographic shift driven by the shrinking number of women of reproductive age and evolving attitudes toward childbearing among younger generations. The authors argue that further research is needed to address the issues of forecast stability and to disentangle the overlapping macro-level factors contributing to Poland’s ongoing fertility decline.
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