Koniunktura w bankowości : lipiec - wrzesień 2016 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 2nd quarter of 2016 the IRG SGH banking confidence indicator (IRGBAN) increased from 12,2 pts to 38,7 pts. That was mainly caused by an increase in the balances of the result on banking activity and of profits. The third component of the indicator - the balance of employment contributed negatively. According to banks, they face some very serious issues now. The most significant ones are the new taxation imposed on assets and constant pressure on FX mortgage loans conversion to PLN. Both factors combined may seriously diminish banks' profits. However, the FX conversion law project was proposed to pay back FX spreads only, while conversion is to be achieved by changing the risk weights on those assets. Still, putting all those factors together, banks tend to be very pessimistic about their business prospects. (original abstract)