Koniunktura w bankowości : styczeń-marzec 2018 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 4th quarter of 2017 the IRG SGH banking confidence indicator (IRGBAN) increased from +8,3 pts to +29,8 pts. The result was mainly caused by an increase in the balances of the result on banking activity and of profits. The third component of the indicator - the balance of employment - contributed to the increase to a lesser extent. According to the surveyed bankers, the banking sector still face some serious issues. The most significant ones are high tax burden, unstable legislative environment and financial situation of their customers. However, the burden is on average lower than a quarter earlier. Over the last 4 years banking activity has been highly volatile, as measured by the magnitude and duration of alternate ups and downs. The tendency is expected to continue as all the components of the general indicator are forecasted to decrease in the 1st quarter of 2018.(original abstract)