Koniunktura w finansach : IV kwartał 2022 Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH

Abstract

In the 4 th quarter of 2022 the financial confidence indicator (IRGFIN) quarterly increased by 10.6 pts to 5.0. It is expected to fall in the 1st quarter 2023 to -7.5 pts. Its main component, the banking confidence indicator decreased by 6.7 pts to -6.7 pts, whereas its prognostic value equals to -5.4 pts. The survey respondents were particularly pessimistic about the risk level, their profits, overall economic situation in Poland and general situation of the financial sector. They indicated law instability and poor financial situation of the customers resulting in reduced demand for financial services as the key barriers to their activity. Half of them expect the zloty to depreciate in the 1st quarter 2023, and the majority of them predict the inflation rate (CPI), monetary base and the interest rates to increase in the 1st quarter 2023. However, 67% of the surveyed expect the inflation rate to fall down in the upcoming 12 months(original abstract)