Zmiana liczby zgonów i trwania życia w latach 2016–2018. Przyczynek do analizy zgonów w Polsce
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Published:
Dec 1, 2019
Keywords:
mortality increase, life expectancy, decomposition methods, older population
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Abstract
Since the 1990s, life expectancy at birth in Poland has increased by over three months on average each year for both sexes. However, in recent years there has been a decrease in life expectancy, and the number of deaths increased by 6% for men and 8% for women between 2016 and 2018.
The aim of this study is to identify the subpopulations most sensitive to the recent changes in mortality in Poland. The increase in deaths is described with regard to changes in age distribution of the population and age at death contributing to life expectancy changes in recent years is analysed. The findings serve as a basis for making references to theoretical knowledge and proposals for future research directions as well as recommendations for public statistics and social policy.
The increase in the number of deaths is a new phenomenon that cannot be accounted for by the size differences between the cohorts born between the two world wars and during the Second World War or the ageing of the baby-boom generations. The greatest contributors to the decreasing life expectancy are deaths at older age. This and the fast growing population aged 85 years and more indicate a need to devote more research attention to analysing mortality in the oldest age groups. It is also emphasised that the elderly are potentially the most prone to various threats associated with an excessive number of deaths, including inadequate health care funding.
Article Details
How to Cite
Wróblewska, W. . (2019). Zmiana liczby zgonów i trwania życia w latach 2016–2018. Przyczynek do analizy zgonów w Polsce. Studia Demograficzne, (1(175), 9–25. https://doi.org/10.33119/SD.2019.1.1
Section
Original research papers & review papers
References
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[2] Arriaga, E. (1984). Measuring and explaining the change in life expectancies, Demography, 21, s. 83–96. DOI: 10.2307/2061029.
[3] Bolesławski, L. (1985). Rożnice w umieralności między generacjami jako skutek wojen światowych, Studia Demograficzne, 4, s. 18–46.
[4] Caselli, G., Mesle, F., Vallin, J. (2002). Epidemiologic transition theory exceptions, Genus, 58 (1), s. 9–52. DOI: 10.2307/29788712.
[5] Chay, K. Y., Greenstone, M. (2003). The impact of air pollution on infant mortality: Evidence from geographic variation in pollution shocks induced by a recession, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (3), s. 1121–1167. DOI: 10.1162/00335530360698513.
[6] De Beer, J., Janssen, F. (2016). A new parametric model to assess delay and compression of mortality, Population Health Metrics, 14 (1), s. 46. DOI: 10.1186/s12963-016-0113-1.
[7] Falkingham, J., McGowan, T. (2016). The changing meaning of old age. BP 31, ESRC Centre for Population Change Briefing Papers, 31, University of Southampton. GB. ESRC Centre for Population Change.
[8] Fihel, A., Muszyńska, M., Wroblewska, W. (2014). Umieralność z przyczyn nieznanych i niedokładnie określonych oraz jej trwałe zrożnicowanie terytorialne, Studia Demograficzne, 1 (165), s. 83–102.
[9] Gerdtham, U. G., Ruhm, C. J. (2006). Deaths rise in good economic times: evidence from the OECD, Economics and Human Biology, 4, s. 298–316. DOI: 10.3386/w9357.
[10] GUS (1997). Polskie tablice trwania życia 1995–1996, oprac. L. Bolesławski. Studia i Analizy Statystyczne. Warszawa: Głowny Urząd Statystyczny.
[11] GUS (2014). Prognoza ludności na lata 2014–2050. (Aneks. Excel) Warszawa: Głowny Urząd Statystyczny, https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/ludnosc/prognoza-ludnosci/prognoza-ludnosci-na-lata-2014–2050‑opracowana-2014‑r-,1,5.html.
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[13] GUS (2019a). Trwanie życia w 2018 r. Warszawa: Głowny Urząd Statystyczny.
[14] Hiam, L., Harrison, D., McKee, M., Dorling, D. (2018). Why is life expectancy in England and Wales ‘stalling’?, Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 72, s. 404–408. DOI: 10.1136/jech-2017–210401.
[15] Horiuchi, S., Ouellette, N., Cheung, S. L., Robine, J. M. (2013). Modal age at adult death: Lifespan indicator in the era of longevity extension, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 11, s. 37‒69.
[16] Janssen, F., Mackenbach, J. P., Kuns, A. E. (2004). Trends in old-age mortality in seven European countries, 1950–1999, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 57 (2), s. 203–216. DOI: 10.1016/S0895–4356 (03) 00290–7.
[17] Kannisto, V. (2000). Measuring the compression of mortality, Demographic Research, 3 (6), s. 1–24. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2000.3.6.
[18] Kannisto, V. (2001). Mode and Dispersion of the Length of Life, Population, an English selection, 13 (1), s. 159–171.
[19] Lindeboom, M., Van Ewijk, R. (2015). Babies of the War: The Effect of War Exposure Early in Life on Mortality Throughout Life, Biodemography and Social Biology, 61 (2), s. 167– 186. DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2015.1047489.
[20] Mackenbach, J. P., Karanikolos, M., Looman, C. W. (2014). The rise of mortality from mental and neurological diseases in Europe, 1979–2009: observational study, BMC Public Health, 14, s. 840. Published 2014 Aug 13. DOI:10.1186/1471–2458–14–840.
[21] Mathers, C., Ho, J. (2014). WHO methods for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (No. WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2014.5), http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/LT_method_1990_2012.pdf.
[22] Mesle, F. (2004). Mortality in Central and Eastern Europe: long-term trends and recent upturns, Demographic Research, 2 (3), s. 45–70. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.3.
[23] Nolte, E., Shkolnikov, V., McKee, M. (2000). Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. I: Short-term during transition and in the 1990s, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 54 (12), s. 899–906. DOI: 10.1136/jech.54.12.899.
[24] Olshansky, S. J., Ault, B. (1986). The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of delayed Degenerative Diseases, The Milbank Quarterly, 64 (3), s. 355–391. DOI: 10.2307/3350025.
[25] Pison, G., Tulemon, L. (2016). The number of deaths in France will increase over the coming years, Population and Societies, 531, March.
[26] Pollard, J. H. (1988). On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy, Demography, 25 (2), s. 265–276.
[27] Purczyński, J., Gazińska, M., Mojsiewicz, J. (2005). Modelowanie umieralności osob w wieku 80 lat i więcej, Studia Demograficzne, 1 (147), s. 30–49.
[28] Rolden, H. J., van Bodegom, D., van den Hout, W. B., Westendorp, R. G. (2014). Old age mortality and macroeconomic cycles, Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 68 (1), s. 44–50. DOI: 10.1136/jech-2013–202544.
[29] Shkolnikov, V. M., McKee, M., Vallin, J., Aksel, E., Leon, D., Chenet, L., Mesle, F. (1999). Cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine: validity, competing risks, and cohort effects, International Journal of Epidemiology, 28, s. 19–29. DOI: 10.1093/ije/28.1.19.
[30] Tapia Granados, J. A., Ionides, E. L. (2011). Mortality and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Contemporary Sweden, European Journal of Population, 27, s. 157–184. DOI: 10.1007/s10680-011-9231-4.
[31] Thatcher, A. R., Kannisto, V., Vaupel, J. W. (1998). The force of mortality at ages 80–120, Odense Monographs on Population Aging 5, Odense University Press.
[32] UN DESA/Population Division (2017). World population prospects: model life tables, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Other/MLT/.
[33] Vallin, J., Mesle, F. (2004), Convergences and divergences in mortality. A new approach to health transition, Demographic Research, 2 (2), s. 11–44. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.2.
[34] Vaupel, J. W. (2010). Biodemography of human ageing, Nature, 464, s. 536–542. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08984.
[35] Willets, R. C. (2004). The Cohort Effect: Insights and Explanations, British Actuarial Journal, Vol. 10, Part IV, No. 48, s. 833–877. DOI: 10.1017/S1357321700002762.
[36] Wilmoth, J. R., Andreev, K., Jdanov, D., Glei, D. A. (2007). Methods protocol for the Human Mortality Database, http://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf.
[37] Wojtyniak, B., Rabczenko, D., Czarkowski, M., Skotak, K. (2018). Ocena przyczyn podwyższonej umieralności ludności Polski na początku 2017 roku. Warszawa: Narodowy Instytut Zdrowia Publicznego – Państwowy Zakład Higieny.
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[39] Wroblewska, W. (2006). Analiza umieralności w Polsce w latach 1970−2003. Dekompozycja zmian w oczekiwanym trwaniu życia noworodka, Studia Demograficzne, 1 (149), s. 28−48.
[40] Wroblewska, W. (2009). Teoria przejścia epidemiologicznego oraz fakty na przełomie wiekow w Polsce, Studia Demograficzne, 1 (155), s. 110–159.
[41] Wroblewska, W. (2017). Pomiar dyspersji wieku w momencie zgonu. Przyczynek do analizy kompresji umieralności w Polsce, Studia Demograficzne, 1 (171), s. 3–25.