Analiza umieralności w Polsce w latach 1970–2003. Dekompozycja zmian w oczekiwanym trwaniu życia noworodka
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Abstract
Advantageous changes in male and female mortality taken place in Poland since the early 1990s placed the life expectancy of Poles among the highest in the Central and Eastern Europe. However, that indicator is still far behind the European countries which benefit from the highest life expectancies. The life expectancy values in Poland are currently at levels observed in these countries 30 years ago for males and 20 years ago for females. A gender gap in the life expectancy also remains high, especially in the middle-aged population. The method proposed by E.Arriaga (1984) was used to decompose changes in the life expectancy by age in Poland over the subsequent decades from 1970/1971 to 2003. The period before 1989 was used to show differences in mortality changes between these two time intervals. Disadvantageous trends in mortality among middle-aged men had been observed in Poland as early as the mid 1970s. In the recent years (1991-2003), beneficial shifts in mortality were observed in all age groups, resulting in the increase in the life expectancy at birth. Results of the analysis of differences in life expectancies by gender confirmed a significant contribution of the middle-aged groups to the gender gap. Shifts in mortality are more advantageous for women in the older age groups, which may stimulate a further growth in the number of single old women in Poland.
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References
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