Heurystyka i błąd poznawczy w wybranych elementach zarządzania ryzykiem w projekcie

Małgorzata Witkowska

doi:10.33119/EEIM.2022.64.2

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września 9, 2022

Opublikowane

września 30, 2022

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Artykuł jest przeglądem sposobów oceny ryzyka w zarządzaniu projektem z perspektywy heurystyki i błędu poznawczego. Czynniki te, często pomijane przez kierowników projektu, mogą spowodować, że ryzyko zamiast zostać poddane krytycznej analizie zostaje zaburzone przez heurystykę – tzw. myślenia na skróty. Zarządzanie projektem (w tym zarządzanie ryzykiem) utożsamia się często z realizacją wielu założeń strategicznych organizacji. Wraz z rosnącą liczbą wymagań oraz zależności pomiędzy poszczególnymi interesariuszami projektu wzrasta poziom niepewności uzyskania oczekiwanych rezultatów. Integralną częścią zarządzania projektem i organizacją jest proces zarządzania ryzykiem. Kluczowym elementem tego procesu jest rozpoznawanie zagrożeń. W artykule przybliżono najczęściej występujące heurystyki oraz błędy poznawcze mające wpływ na zaburzenie postrzegania czy rzetelnej analizy ryzyka.

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heurystyka błąd poznawczy zarządzanie ryzykiem zarządzanie projektem podejmowanie decyzji analiza ryzyka

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Autor (Autorzy) artykułu oświadcza, że przesłane opracowanie nie narusza praw autorskich osób trzecich. Wyraża zgodę na poddanie artykułu procedurze recenzji oraz dokonanie zmian redakcyjnych. Przenosi nieodpłatnie na Oficynę Wydawniczą SGH autorskie prawa majątkowe do utworu na polach eksploatacji wymienionych w art. 50 Ustawy z dnia 4 lutego 1994 r. o prawie autorskim i prawach pokrewnych – pod warunkiem, że praca została zaakceptowana do publikacji i opublikowana.

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Witkowska, M. (2022). Heurystyka i błąd poznawczy w wybranych elementach zarządzania ryzykiem w projekcie. Edukacja Ekonomistów I Menedżerów, 64(2). https://doi.org/10.33119/EEIM.2022.64.2

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Referencje

Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and Benefits of Judgement Errors: Implications for Debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110 (3), 486–498.
Aven, E., Aven, T. (2015). On the Need for Rethinking Current Practice that Highlights Goal Achievement Risk in an Enterprise Context. Risk Analysis, 35 (9), 1706–1716.
BarHillel, M., Neter, E. (1993). How Alike Is It Versus How Likely Is It, A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65 (6), 1119–1131.
Barkow, J. H., Cosmides, L., Tooby, J. (Eds.). (1992). The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bednarek, R., Chalkias, K., Jarzabkowski, P. (2021). Managing Risk as a Duality of Harm and Benefit: a Study of Organizational Risk Objects in the Global Insurance Industry. British Journal of Management, 32 (1), 235–254.
Blokdyk, G. (2020). ISO 31000 A Complete Guide – 2020. Brendale: The Art of Service.
Chyliński, A. (2015), Podglądanie ryzyka, dyktat założeń. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, 155.
Conchar, M., Olavarrieta, S., Peters, C. O. (2004). Integrated Framework for the Conceptualization of Consumers’ PerceivedRisk Processing. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 32 (4), 418–436.
Cunningham, S. M. (1967). The major dimensions of perceived risk. W: D. F. Cox (Ed.), Risk Taking and Information Handling in Consumer Behaviour. Boston, MA: Harvard University Press, 82–111.
Doroszewski, W. (red.). (1997). Słownik języka polskiego. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, https://sjp.pwn.pl/sjp/ryzyko;2518509.html (dostęp: 3.02.2022).
Dunning, D. (2005), Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself. New York, NY: Psychology Press.
Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J., Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognize their own incompetence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 12 (3), 83–87.
Dzik, B. (2004). Hazard. W: T. Tyszka (red.) Psychologia ekonomiczna. Gdańsk: Gdańskie Wydawnictwo Psychologiczne, 567–599.
Englich, B., Soder, K. (2009). Moody experts: how mood and expertise influence judgmental anchoring. Judgmental and Decision Making, 4, 41–50.
Eroglu, C., Croxton, K. L. (2010). Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: the role of individual differences. International Journal of Forecasting, 26, 116–133.
Fiske, S.T. (1993). Controlling Other People: The Impact of Power on Stereotyping. American Psychologist, 48 (6), 621–628.
Fiske, S. T., Taylor, S. E. (2008). Social cognition: Form brains to culture. New York: McGraw Hill.
Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19 (4), 25–42.
Gallagher, K. M., Updegraff, J. A. (2012). Health Message Framing Effects on Attitudes, Intentions, and Behavior: A Metaanalytic Review. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 43 (1), 101–116.
Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”. European Review of Social Psychology, (2), 83–115.
Gigerenzer, G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. W: K. I. Manktelow, D. E. Over (Eds.), Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives. London: Routledge, 284–313.
Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. W., Kahneman, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgement. Cambridge University Press, 2.
Glover, S. M. (1997). The influence of time pressure and accountability on auditors’ processing of nondiagnostic information. Journal of Accounting Research, 35 (2), 213–226.
Hahn, U., Harris, A. J. L. (2014). What does it mean to be biased: Motivated reasoning and rationality. W: H. R. Brian (Ed.), Psychology of learning and motivation. New York: Academic Press, 41–102.
Haimes, Y. Y. (2009). On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach, Risk Analysis. An International Journal, 29 (12), 1647–1654.
Hall, T. W., Hunton, J. E., Pierce, B. J. (2000). The use of and selection biases associated with nonstatistical sampling in auditing. Behavioral Research in Accounting, (12), 231–255.
Haselton, M. G., Buss, D. M. (2001). Emotional reactions following firsttime sexual intercourse: the affective shift hypothesis. Personal Relationships, 8, 357–369.
Haselton, M. G., Nettle, D., Andrews, P. W. (2005). The evolution of cognitive bias. W: D. M. Buss (Ed.), The handbook of evolutionary psychology. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 724–746.
Hinde, D. (2021). PRINCE2 Study Guide: 2017 Update. London: Orgtopia Limited.
Holton, G. A. (2004). Defining Risk. Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25.
Internetowa encyklopedia PWN (2022). https://encyklopedia.pwn.pl/szukaj/heurystyka. html (dostęp: 10.03.2022).
Jajuga, K. (2019). Zarządzanie ryzykiem, wydanie II. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.
Joe, J. R. (2003). Why press coverage of a client influences the audit opinion. Journal of Accounting Research, 41 (1), 109–133.
Kahneman, D. (2012). Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym. Poznań: Media Rodzina.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A. (2008). Judgement under uncertainty, Heuristic and biases, 24th Edition. Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1973). Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability. Cognitive Psychology, (5), 207–232.
Klayman, J. (1995). Varieties of confirmation bias. Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 32, 385–418.
Korteling, J. E., Brouwer, A. M., Toet, A. (2018). A Neural Network Framework for Cognitive Bias. Frontiers in Psychology, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ fpsyg.2018.01561/full (dostęp: 5.02.2022).
Levin, I. P., Schneider, S. L., Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76 (2), 149–188.
MacMullen, R. (2003). Feelings in history, ancient and modern. Claremont: Regina Books.
Meyerowitz, B. E., Chaiken, S. (1987). The effect of message framing on breast self examination attitudes, intentions, and behaviour. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52 (3), 500–510. DOI: 10.1037%2F00223514.52.3.500 (dostęp: 3.02.2022).
Miller, K. D. (2009). Organizational Risk After Modernism. Organization Studies, 30 (2–3), 157–180.
Nelson, M. W., Libby, R. (1995). Knowledge structure and the estimation of conditional probabilities in audit planning. Accounting Review, 70 (1), 27–47.
Newton, D. A. (1967). A marketing communications model for sales management. W: D. F. Cox (Ed.), Risk-taking and information-handling in consumer behavior. Boston: Harvard University Press, 579–602.
Nickerson, R. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.
Review of General Psychology, 2, 175–220.
Osborn, A. F. (1954). Creative Thinking. American Association of Industrial Nurses Journal, 6 (9), 23–25.
Pezzo, M. V. (2003). Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?. Memory, 11, 421–441.
Power, M. (2014). Risk, Social Theories, and Organizations. W: P. Adler, P. du Gay, G. Morgan, M. Reed (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Sociology, Social Theory, and Organization Studies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 370–392.
Project Management Institute (2017). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide), 6th edition. Pensylania: Project Management Institute.
Reisberg, D. (2013). The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology, Illustrated edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Schiffman, L. G. (1972). Perceived Risk in New Product Trial by Elderly Consumers. Journal of Marketing Research, 9, 106–108.
Stibel, J. (2018). Fake news: How our brains lead us into echo chambers that promote racism and sexism. USA Today, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/05/15/fakenewssocialmediaconfirmationbiasechochambers/533857002/ (dostęp: 02.03.2022).
Szwed, P. (2016). Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap. Project Management Institute.
Taarup‐Esbensen, J. (2019). Making Sense of Risk – a Sociological Perspective on the Management of Risk. Risk Analysis, 39 (4), 749–760.
Thorndike, E. L. (1920). A constant error in psychological ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 1, 25–29.
Toplak, M., West, R. F., Stanovich, K. E. (2014). Assessing Rational Thinking Using an Expansion of the Cognitive Reflection Test. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 68 (4), 256–256.
Tumonis, V., Šavelskis, M., Žalytė, I. (2013). Judicial DecisionMaking From An Empirical Perspective. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 6 (1), 140–162.
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105–110.
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. Science, 185 (4157), 1124–1131.
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgments of and by representativeness. W: D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky, (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 239–315.
Wojciszke, B. (2022). Psychologia społeczna. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.
Wynne, B. (1996). May may the sheep safely graze?. London: Sage, 45–83.
Vanughan, E. J. (1997). Risk Management. Hoboken, NJ: John Willey & Sons.

Referencje

Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and Benefits of Judgement Errors: Implications for Debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110 (3), 486–498.

Aven, E., Aven, T. (2015). On the Need for Rethinking Current Practice that Highlights Goal Achievement Risk in an Enterprise Context. Risk Analysis, 35 (9), 1706–1716.

BarHillel, M., Neter, E. (1993). How Alike Is It Versus How Likely Is It, A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65 (6), 1119–1131.

Barkow, J. H., Cosmides, L., Tooby, J. (Eds.). (1992). The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bednarek, R., Chalkias, K., Jarzabkowski, P. (2021). Managing Risk as a Duality of Harm and Benefit: a Study of Organizational Risk Objects in the Global Insurance Industry. British Journal of Management, 32 (1), 235–254.

Blokdyk, G. (2020). ISO 31000 A Complete Guide – 2020. Brendale: The Art of Service.

Chyliński, A. (2015), Podglądanie ryzyka, dyktat założeń. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, 155.

Conchar, M., Olavarrieta, S., Peters, C. O. (2004). Integrated Framework for the Conceptualization of Consumers’ PerceivedRisk Processing. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 32 (4), 418–436.

Cunningham, S. M. (1967). The major dimensions of perceived risk. W: D. F. Cox (Ed.), Risk Taking and Information Handling in Consumer Behaviour. Boston, MA: Harvard University Press, 82–111.

Doroszewski, W. (red.). (1997). Słownik języka polskiego. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, https://sjp.pwn.pl/sjp/ryzyko;2518509.html (dostęp: 3.02.2022).

Dunning, D. (2005), Self-Insight: Roadblocks and Detours on the Path to Knowing Thyself. New York, NY: Psychology Press.

Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J., Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognize their own incompetence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 12 (3), 83–87.

Dzik, B. (2004). Hazard. W: T. Tyszka (red.) Psychologia ekonomiczna. Gdańsk: Gdańskie Wydawnictwo Psychologiczne, 567–599.

Englich, B., Soder, K. (2009). Moody experts: how mood and expertise influence judgmental anchoring. Judgmental and Decision Making, 4, 41–50.

Eroglu, C., Croxton, K. L. (2010). Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: the role of individual differences. International Journal of Forecasting, 26, 116–133.

Fiske, S.T. (1993). Controlling Other People: The Impact of Power on Stereotyping. American Psychologist, 48 (6), 621–628.

Fiske, S. T., Taylor, S. E. (2008). Social cognition: Form brains to culture. New York: McGraw Hill.

Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19 (4), 25–42.

Gallagher, K. M., Updegraff, J. A. (2012). Health Message Framing Effects on Attitudes, Intentions, and Behavior: A Metaanalytic Review. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 43 (1), 101–116.

Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”. European Review of Social Psychology, (2), 83–115.

Gigerenzer, G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. W: K. I. Manktelow, D. E. Over (Eds.), Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives. London: Routledge, 284–313.

Gilovich, T., Griffin, D. W., Kahneman, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgement. Cambridge University Press, 2.

Glover, S. M. (1997). The influence of time pressure and accountability on auditors’ processing of nondiagnostic information. Journal of Accounting Research, 35 (2), 213–226.

Hahn, U., Harris, A. J. L. (2014). What does it mean to be biased: Motivated reasoning and rationality. W: H. R. Brian (Ed.), Psychology of learning and motivation. New York: Academic Press, 41–102.

Haimes, Y. Y. (2009). On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach, Risk Analysis. An International Journal, 29 (12), 1647–1654.

Hall, T. W., Hunton, J. E., Pierce, B. J. (2000). The use of and selection biases associated with nonstatistical sampling in auditing. Behavioral Research in Accounting, (12), 231–255.

Haselton, M. G., Buss, D. M. (2001). Emotional reactions following firsttime sexual intercourse: the affective shift hypothesis. Personal Relationships, 8, 357–369.

Haselton, M. G., Nettle, D., Andrews, P. W. (2005). The evolution of cognitive bias. W: D. M. Buss (Ed.), The handbook of evolutionary psychology. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 724–746.

Hinde, D. (2021). PRINCE2 Study Guide: 2017 Update. London: Orgtopia Limited.

Holton, G. A. (2004). Defining Risk. Financial Analysts Journal, 60 (6), 19–25.

Internetowa encyklopedia PWN (2022). https://encyklopedia.pwn.pl/szukaj/heurystyka. html (dostęp: 10.03.2022).

Jajuga, K. (2019). Zarządzanie ryzykiem, wydanie II. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN.

Joe, J. R. (2003). Why press coverage of a client influences the audit opinion. Journal of Accounting Research, 41 (1), 109–133.

Kahneman, D. (2012). Pułapki myślenia. O myśleniu szybkim i wolnym. Poznań: Media Rodzina.

Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A. (2008). Judgement under uncertainty, Heuristic and biases, 24th Edition. Cambridge University Press.

Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1973). Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability. Cognitive Psychology, (5), 207–232.

Klayman, J. (1995). Varieties of confirmation bias. Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 32, 385–418.

Korteling, J. E., Brouwer, A. M., Toet, A. (2018). A Neural Network Framework for Cognitive Bias. Frontiers in Psychology, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ fpsyg.2018.01561/full (dostęp: 5.02.2022).

Levin, I. P., Schneider, S. L., Gaeth, G. J. (1998). All frames are not created equal: A typology and critical analysis of framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76 (2), 149–188.

MacMullen, R. (2003). Feelings in history, ancient and modern. Claremont: Regina Books.

Meyerowitz, B. E., Chaiken, S. (1987). The effect of message framing on breast self examination attitudes, intentions, and behaviour. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52 (3), 500–510. DOI: 10.1037%2F00223514.52.3.500 (dostęp: 3.02.2022).

Miller, K. D. (2009). Organizational Risk After Modernism. Organization Studies, 30 (2–3), 157–180.

Nelson, M. W., Libby, R. (1995). Knowledge structure and the estimation of conditional probabilities in audit planning. Accounting Review, 70 (1), 27–47.

Newton, D. A. (1967). A marketing communications model for sales management. W: D. F. Cox (Ed.), Risk-taking and information-handling in consumer behavior. Boston: Harvard University Press, 579–602.

Nickerson, R. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.

Review of General Psychology, 2, 175–220.

Osborn, A. F. (1954). Creative Thinking. American Association of Industrial Nurses Journal, 6 (9), 23–25.

Pezzo, M. V. (2003). Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?. Memory, 11, 421–441.

Power, M. (2014). Risk, Social Theories, and Organizations. W: P. Adler, P. du Gay, G. Morgan, M. Reed (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Sociology, Social Theory, and Organization Studies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 370–392.

Project Management Institute (2017). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide), 6th edition. Pensylania: Project Management Institute.

Reisberg, D. (2013). The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology, Illustrated edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Schiffman, L. G. (1972). Perceived Risk in New Product Trial by Elderly Consumers. Journal of Marketing Research, 9, 106–108.

Stibel, J. (2018). Fake news: How our brains lead us into echo chambers that promote racism and sexism. USA Today, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/05/15/fakenewssocialmediaconfirmationbiasechochambers/533857002/ (dostęp: 02.03.2022).

Szwed, P. (2016). Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap. Project Management Institute.

Taarup‐Esbensen, J. (2019). Making Sense of Risk – a Sociological Perspective on the Management of Risk. Risk Analysis, 39 (4), 749–760.

Thorndike, E. L. (1920). A constant error in psychological ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 1, 25–29.

Toplak, M., West, R. F., Stanovich, K. E. (2014). Assessing Rational Thinking Using an Expansion of the Cognitive Reflection Test. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 68 (4), 256–256.

Tumonis, V., Šavelskis, M., Žalytė, I. (2013). Judicial DecisionMaking From An Empirical Perspective. Baltic Journal of Law & Politics, 6 (1), 140–162.

Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105–110.

Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: Biases in judgments reveal some heuristics of thinking under uncertainty. Science, 185 (4157), 1124–1131.

Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgments of and by representativeness. W: D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky, (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 239–315.

Wojciszke, B. (2022). Psychologia społeczna. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.

Wynne, B. (1996). May may the sheep safely graze?. London: Sage, 45–83.

Vanughan, E. J. (1997). Risk Management. Hoboken, NJ: John Willey & Sons.

Heurystyka i błąd poznawczy w wybranych elementach zarządzania ryzykiem w projekcie

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