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Niniejszy artykuł przedstawia ujednolicony model dyfuzji polityki publicznej w celu analizy szybkości przyjmowania stanowych polityk lockdownu w systemie federalnym podczas pandemii COVID-19. Został tu zbudowany zmodyfikowany ujednolicony model w celu lepszego zrozumienia dyfuzji polityki publicznej w kontekstach, w których istniejące modele nie spełniają oczekiwań. Wyróżniono trzy główne kanały dyfuzji polityki publicznej: regionalny, wertykalny i wewnętrzny. Artykuł zawiera empiryczny test modelu na przykładzie Stanów Zjednoczonych i stwierdza, że efekty wertykalne, takie jak wyższe oceny poparcia dla prezydenta Donalda Trumpa, a także stosunkowo wysoki udział federalnego wsparcia finansowego na walkę z COVID-19, mają silny pozytywny związek z szybkością przyjmowania lockdownu. Ponadto ważne są również pewne efekty wewnętrzne - wyższe oceny akceptacji gubernatorów są pozytywnie powiązane z szybkością polityki przyjmowania lockdownu w całym stanie, podobnie jak wydatki stanowe i lokalne, demokratyczne rządy i świadomość ludności na temat wirusa. Jednak inne czynniki wewnętrzne, takie jak rygorystyczne stanowe polityki lockdownu i względny odsetek zgonów z powodu COVID-19 na poziomie stanowym, były minimalnie związane z szybkością przyjmowania polityki lockdownów. Co zaskakujące, w przeciwieństwie do wcześniejszych badań, horyzontalne efekty regionalne nie odegrały znaczącej roli w analizie - szybkość przyjmowania polityki lockdownu przez sąsiednie państwa nie ma związku z tempem przyjmowania lockdownu w całym kraju. Ogólnie rzecz biorąc, wyniki sugerują silny wpływ czynników politycznych na szybkość wdrażania polityki lockdownu w Stanach Zjednoczonych na poziomie stanowym.
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Szczegóły artykułu
Czasopismo „Studia z Polityki Publicznej/Public Policy Studies” zapewnia dostęp do treści artykułów w trybie otwartego dostępu (Open Access) na zasadach licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowe (CC BY 4.0).
Więcej informacji: Polityka Open Access czasopisma "Studia z Polityki Publicznej/Public Policy Studies"
Referencje
- Adolph, C., Amano, K., Bang-Jensen, B., Fullman, N., Wilkerson, J. (2021). Pandemic politics: Timing state-level social distancing responses to COVID-19. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 46 (2): 211-233.
- Barak, N., Sommer, U., Mualam, N. (2021). Urban attributes and the spread of COVID-19: The effects of density, compliance and socio-political factors in Israel. Science of the Total Environment, 148626.
- Berry, F. S., Berry, W. D. (1990). State lottery adoptions as policy innovations: An event history analysis. American Political Science Review, 84 (2): 395-415.
- Berry, W. D., Baybeck, B. (2005). Using geographic information systems to study interstate competition. American Political Science Review, 99 (4): 505-519.
- Blake, A. (2020). 49 of 50 Governors Have Better Coronavirus Poll Numbers than Trump. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/ (accessed: 6.02.2021).
- Bowling, C. J., Pickerill, J. M. (2013). Fragmented federalism: The state of American federalism 2012-13. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 43 (3): 315-346.
- Capano, G., Howlett, M., Jarvis, D. S., Ramesh, M., Goyal, N. (2020). Mobilizing policy (in) capacity to fight COVID-19: Understanding variations in state responses. Policy and Society, 39 (3): 285-308.
- CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2019). Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Cleaning and Disinfection for Households. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html (accessed: 5.02.2021).
- CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2020). About Global Health Security, https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/healthprotection/ghs/about.html (accessed: 1.02.2021).
- Chantrill, C. (2020). Monthly Federal Spending/Revenue/Deficit Charts Federal Coronavirus/COVID-19 Response. United States Government Spending. https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/gdp_by_state (accessed: 5.03.2021).
- Cheng, C., Barceló, J., Hartnett, A. S., Kubinec, R., Messerschmidt, L. (2020). COVID-19 government response event dataset (CoronaNet v. 1.0). Nature Human Behaviour, 4 (7): 756-768.
- Cillizza, C. (2020). 7 Governors Still Haven't Issued Stay-At-Home Orders. Here's Why. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/asa-hutchison-arkansas-coronavirus/index.html (accessed: 9.02.2021).
- CIVIQS (2020). Donald Trump: Job Approval Registered Voters. https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true (accessed: 7.02.2021).
- Cyert, R. M., March, J. G. (1963). A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
- Eaton, L. J. (2013). Policy adoption by state governments: An event history analysis of factors influencing states to enact inpatient health care transparency laws (Doctoral dissertation, The Florida State University).
- Elazar, D. J. (1972). American federalism: A view from the states. 3 rd ed. New York, NY: Harper & Row.
- Ellerbeck, A. (2021). The Health 202: Here's How the U. S. Compares to Other Countries on the Coronavirus Pandemic. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/12/health-202-here-how-us-compares-other-countries-coronavirus-pandemic/ (accessed: 4.02.2021).
- Google Trend Search (2020). Coronavirus Search Trend. https://trends.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_4Rjdh3ABAABMHM_en (accessed: 15.02.2021).
- Gostin, L. O., Friedman, E. A., Wetter, S. A. (2020). Responding to COVID-19: how to navigate a public health emergency legally and ethically. Hastings Center Report, 50 (2): 8-12.
- Gray, V. (1973). Innovation in the states: A diffusion study. American Political Science Review, 67 (4): 1174-1185.
- Grossback, L. J., Nicholson-Crotty, S., Peterson, D. A. (2004). Ideology and learning in policy diffusion. American Politics Research, 32 (5): 521-545.
- Hart, P., Heyse, L., Boin, A. (2001). New trends in crisis management practice and crisis management research: Setting the agenda. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 9 (4): 181-188.
- Holzinger, K., Knill, C. (2005). Causes and conditions of cross-national policy convergence. Journal of European Public Policy, 12 (5): 775-796.
- Jones, J. (2016). Illinois Residents Least Confident in Their State Government. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/189281/illinois-residents-least-confident-state-government.aspx (accessed: 20.02.2021).
- Kamisar, B., Holzberg, M. (2020). Americans Trust Governors More Than Trump on Coronavirus. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/americans-trust-governors-more-trump-coronavirus-new-poll-finds-n1233031 (accessed: 6.03.2021).
- Koerth, M. (2020). Americans Don't Trust the People in Charge of the Coronavirus Fight. Five Thirty-Eight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politicians-are-the-last-people-americans-want-fighting-coronavirus/ (accessed: 1.02.2021).
- Levi-Faur, D. (Ed.) (2011). Handbook on the Politics of Regulation. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Lundgren, M., Klamberg, M., Sundström, K., Dahlqvist, J. (2020). Emergency powers in response to COVID-19: Policy Diffusion, democracy, and preparedness. Nordic Journal of Human Rights, 38 (4): 305-318.
- Mallinson, D. J. (2016). Building a better speed trap: Measuring policy adoption speed in the American states. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 16 (1): 98-120.
- Mallinson, D. J. (2020). Cooperation and conflict in state and local innovation during COVID-19. The American Review of Public Administration, 50 (6-7): 543-550.
- McCannon B. C. (2021). Do Governors Lead or Follow? Timing of Stay-at-Home Orders. Eastern Economic Journal, 47: 506-518. DOI: 10.1057/s41302-021-00204-9.
- Mei, C. (2020). Policy style, consistency and the effectiveness of the policy mix in China's fight against COVID-19. Policy and Society, 39 (3): 309-325.
- Mervosh, S., Swales, D. (2020). See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html (accessed: 17.03.2021).
- Mohr, L. B. (1969). Determinants of innovation in organizations. American Political Science Review, 63 (1): 111-126.
- Monaghan, H. P. (1993). The Protective Power of the Presidency. Columbia Law Review, 93 (1): 1-74.
- Mooney, C. Z., Lee, M. H. (1995). Legislative morality in the American states: The case of pre-Roe abortion regulation reform. American Journal of Political Science: 599-627.
- Moore, S., Laffer, A., Griffith, J. (2015, May). 1,000 People a Day: Why Red States Are Getting Richer and Blue States Poorer. The Heritage Foundation: 1-19.
- National League of Cities. (2020). What's the Difference Between Shelter in Place, Safer at Home, and Stay Home Orders? https://citiesspeak.org/2020/03/30/whats-the-difference-between-shelter-in-place-safer-at-home-and-stay-home-orders/#:~:text=While%20safer%20at%20home%20and,until%20additional%20guidance%20is%20given (accessed: 1.03.2021).
- Parmet, W. E. (1985). AIDS and quarantine: the revival of an archaic doctrine. Hofstra Law Review, 14: 53-90.
- Rogers, E. M. (2010). Diffusion of innovations. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster.
- Rose, S., Bowling, C. J. (2015). The state of American federalism 2014-15: Pathways to policy in an era of party polarization. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 45 (3): 351-379.
- Sauter, M., Stebbins, S. (2020). Nevada, Hawaii Are Among the States Most Likely to Feel the Economic Hit By COVID-19. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/08/state-economies-most-likely-to-be-crippled-by-covid-19/111645576/ (accessed: 23.03.2021).
- Savage, R. L. (1985). Diffusion research traditions and the spread of policy innovations in a federal system. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 15 (4): 1-28.
- Sommer, U., Rappel-Kroyzer, O. (2021a). Online coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Anglo-American democracies: internet news coverage and pandemic politics in the USA, Canada, and New Zealand. Journal of Information Technology & Politics: 1-18. Advance online publication. DOI: 10.1080/19331681.2021.1997869.
- Sommer, U., Rappel-Kroyzer, O. (2021b). Pandemic Politics in the United States: COVID-19 as a New Type of Political Emergency. Political Psychology, Advance online publication. DOI: 10.1111/pops.12792.
- Stebbins, S., Comen, E. (2020). Coronavirus Relief: How Federal Funding Failed to Match Each State's Coronavirus Crisis. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/15/how-federal-funding-failed-to-match-each-states-covid-outbreak/111939982/ (accessed: 8.03.2021).
- Tamari, J. (2020). Trump's Push to Reopen Pennsylvania Adds 2020 Politics to a Heated Coronavirus Debate. The Philadelphia Inquirer. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/coronavirus-lockdowns-trump-pa-visit-20200513.html (accessed: 13.03.2021).
- United States Census Bureau (2019). State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2019. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html (accessed: 2.03.2021).
- Valelly, R. M. (Ed.). (2009). Princeton readings in American politics. New Jersey, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Walker, J. L. (1969). The diffusion of innovations among the American states. American Political Science Review, 63 (3): 880-899.
- Weible, C. M., Nohrstedt, D., Cairney, P., Carter, D. P., Crow, D. A., Durnová, A. P., Heikkila, T., Ingold, K., McConnell, A., Stone, D. (2020). COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives. Policy Sciences, 53 (2): 225-241.
- WHO (World Health Organization) (2019). Covid-19 Strategy Update. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/covid-strategy-update-14april2020.pdf (accessed: 23.03.2021).
Referencje
Adolph, C., Amano, K., Bang-Jensen, B., Fullman, N., Wilkerson, J. (2021). Pandemic politics: Timing state-level social distancing responses to COVID-19. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 46 (2): 211-233.
Barak, N., Sommer, U., Mualam, N. (2021). Urban attributes and the spread of COVID-19: The effects of density, compliance and socio-political factors in Israel. Science of the Total Environment, 148626.
Berry, F. S., Berry, W. D. (1990). State lottery adoptions as policy innovations: An event history analysis. American Political Science Review, 84 (2): 395-415.
Berry, W. D., Baybeck, B. (2005). Using geographic information systems to study interstate competition. American Political Science Review, 99 (4): 505-519.
Blake, A. (2020). 49 of 50 Governors Have Better Coronavirus Poll Numbers than Trump. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/ (accessed: 6.02.2021).
Bowling, C. J., Pickerill, J. M. (2013). Fragmented federalism: The state of American federalism 2012-13. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 43 (3): 315-346.
Capano, G., Howlett, M., Jarvis, D. S., Ramesh, M., Goyal, N. (2020). Mobilizing policy (in) capacity to fight COVID-19: Understanding variations in state responses. Policy and Society, 39 (3): 285-308.
CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2019). Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - Cleaning and Disinfection for Households. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cleaning-disinfection.html (accessed: 5.02.2021).
CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2020). About Global Health Security, https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/healthprotection/ghs/about.html (accessed: 1.02.2021).
Chantrill, C. (2020). Monthly Federal Spending/Revenue/Deficit Charts Federal Coronavirus/COVID-19 Response. United States Government Spending. https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/gdp_by_state (accessed: 5.03.2021).
Cheng, C., Barceló, J., Hartnett, A. S., Kubinec, R., Messerschmidt, L. (2020). COVID-19 government response event dataset (CoronaNet v. 1.0). Nature Human Behaviour, 4 (7): 756-768.
Cillizza, C. (2020). 7 Governors Still Haven't Issued Stay-At-Home Orders. Here's Why. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/asa-hutchison-arkansas-coronavirus/index.html (accessed: 9.02.2021).
CIVIQS (2020). Donald Trump: Job Approval Registered Voters. https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true (accessed: 7.02.2021).
Cyert, R. M., March, J. G. (1963). A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Eaton, L. J. (2013). Policy adoption by state governments: An event history analysis of factors influencing states to enact inpatient health care transparency laws (Doctoral dissertation, The Florida State University).
Elazar, D. J. (1972). American federalism: A view from the states. 3 rd ed. New York, NY: Harper & Row.
Ellerbeck, A. (2021). The Health 202: Here's How the U. S. Compares to Other Countries on the Coronavirus Pandemic. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/12/health-202-here-how-us-compares-other-countries-coronavirus-pandemic/ (accessed: 4.02.2021).
Google Trend Search (2020). Coronavirus Search Trend. https://trends.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_4Rjdh3ABAABMHM_en (accessed: 15.02.2021).
Gostin, L. O., Friedman, E. A., Wetter, S. A. (2020). Responding to COVID-19: how to navigate a public health emergency legally and ethically. Hastings Center Report, 50 (2): 8-12.
Gray, V. (1973). Innovation in the states: A diffusion study. American Political Science Review, 67 (4): 1174-1185.
Grossback, L. J., Nicholson-Crotty, S., Peterson, D. A. (2004). Ideology and learning in policy diffusion. American Politics Research, 32 (5): 521-545.
Hart, P., Heyse, L., Boin, A. (2001). New trends in crisis management practice and crisis management research: Setting the agenda. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 9 (4): 181-188.
Holzinger, K., Knill, C. (2005). Causes and conditions of cross-national policy convergence. Journal of European Public Policy, 12 (5): 775-796.
Jones, J. (2016). Illinois Residents Least Confident in Their State Government. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/189281/illinois-residents-least-confident-state-government.aspx (accessed: 20.02.2021).
Kamisar, B., Holzberg, M. (2020). Americans Trust Governors More Than Trump on Coronavirus. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/americans-trust-governors-more-trump-coronavirus-new-poll-finds-n1233031 (accessed: 6.03.2021).
Koerth, M. (2020). Americans Don't Trust the People in Charge of the Coronavirus Fight. Five Thirty-Eight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politicians-are-the-last-people-americans-want-fighting-coronavirus/ (accessed: 1.02.2021).
Levi-Faur, D. (Ed.) (2011). Handbook on the Politics of Regulation. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Lundgren, M., Klamberg, M., Sundström, K., Dahlqvist, J. (2020). Emergency powers in response to COVID-19: Policy Diffusion, democracy, and preparedness. Nordic Journal of Human Rights, 38 (4): 305-318.
Mallinson, D. J. (2016). Building a better speed trap: Measuring policy adoption speed in the American states. State Politics & Policy Quarterly, 16 (1): 98-120.
Mallinson, D. J. (2020). Cooperation and conflict in state and local innovation during COVID-19. The American Review of Public Administration, 50 (6-7): 543-550.
McCannon B. C. (2021). Do Governors Lead or Follow? Timing of Stay-at-Home Orders. Eastern Economic Journal, 47: 506-518. DOI: 10.1057/s41302-021-00204-9.
Mei, C. (2020). Policy style, consistency and the effectiveness of the policy mix in China's fight against COVID-19. Policy and Society, 39 (3): 309-325.
Mervosh, S., Swales, D. (2020). See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html (accessed: 17.03.2021).
Mohr, L. B. (1969). Determinants of innovation in organizations. American Political Science Review, 63 (1): 111-126.
Monaghan, H. P. (1993). The Protective Power of the Presidency. Columbia Law Review, 93 (1): 1-74.
Mooney, C. Z., Lee, M. H. (1995). Legislative morality in the American states: The case of pre-Roe abortion regulation reform. American Journal of Political Science: 599-627.
Moore, S., Laffer, A., Griffith, J. (2015, May). 1,000 People a Day: Why Red States Are Getting Richer and Blue States Poorer. The Heritage Foundation: 1-19.
National League of Cities. (2020). What's the Difference Between Shelter in Place, Safer at Home, and Stay Home Orders? https://citiesspeak.org/2020/03/30/whats-the-difference-between-shelter-in-place-safer-at-home-and-stay-home-orders/#:~:text=While%20safer%20at%20home%20and,until%20additional%20guidance%20is%20given (accessed: 1.03.2021).
Parmet, W. E. (1985). AIDS and quarantine: the revival of an archaic doctrine. Hofstra Law Review, 14: 53-90.
Rogers, E. M. (2010). Diffusion of innovations. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster.
Rose, S., Bowling, C. J. (2015). The state of American federalism 2014-15: Pathways to policy in an era of party polarization. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 45 (3): 351-379.
Sauter, M., Stebbins, S. (2020). Nevada, Hawaii Are Among the States Most Likely to Feel the Economic Hit By COVID-19. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/08/state-economies-most-likely-to-be-crippled-by-covid-19/111645576/ (accessed: 23.03.2021).
Savage, R. L. (1985). Diffusion research traditions and the spread of policy innovations in a federal system. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 15 (4): 1-28.
Sommer, U., Rappel-Kroyzer, O. (2021a). Online coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Anglo-American democracies: internet news coverage and pandemic politics in the USA, Canada, and New Zealand. Journal of Information Technology & Politics: 1-18. Advance online publication. DOI: 10.1080/19331681.2021.1997869.
Sommer, U., Rappel-Kroyzer, O. (2021b). Pandemic Politics in the United States: COVID-19 as a New Type of Political Emergency. Political Psychology, Advance online publication. DOI: 10.1111/pops.12792.
Stebbins, S., Comen, E. (2020). Coronavirus Relief: How Federal Funding Failed to Match Each State's Coronavirus Crisis. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/15/how-federal-funding-failed-to-match-each-states-covid-outbreak/111939982/ (accessed: 8.03.2021).
Tamari, J. (2020). Trump's Push to Reopen Pennsylvania Adds 2020 Politics to a Heated Coronavirus Debate. The Philadelphia Inquirer. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/coronavirus-lockdowns-trump-pa-visit-20200513.html (accessed: 13.03.2021).
United States Census Bureau (2019). State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2019. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html (accessed: 2.03.2021).
Valelly, R. M. (Ed.). (2009). Princeton readings in American politics. New Jersey, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Walker, J. L. (1969). The diffusion of innovations among the American states. American Political Science Review, 63 (3): 880-899.
Weible, C. M., Nohrstedt, D., Cairney, P., Carter, D. P., Crow, D. A., Durnová, A. P., Heikkila, T., Ingold, K., McConnell, A., Stone, D. (2020). COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives. Policy Sciences, 53 (2): 225-241.
WHO (World Health Organization) (2019). Covid-19 Strategy Update. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/covid-strategy-update-14april2020.pdf (accessed: 23.03.2021).