Poza inflacją: wpływ cen energii na poziom kredytów zagrożonych w UE
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kredyty zagrożone, NPL, ceny energii, energia odnawialna, model panelowy ARDL
Abstrakt
Niniejszy artykuł analizuje poziom kredytów zagrożonych (Non-Performing Loans, NPL) w krajach Unii Europejskiej (UE) w latach 2014–2022, uwzględniając zarówno standardowe, jak nowe propozycje zmiennych, takich jak ceny energii. Wykorzystując ekonometryczny panelowy model ARDL, tradycyjnie stosowane wskaźniki inflacji zastąpiono propozycją wskaźnika cen energii, obejmującym znormalizowane ceny ropy naftowej, gazu ziemnego, węgla oraz uprawnień do emisji CO₂ (ETS). Wyniki modelu sugerują, że objaśniając poziom NPL wskaźnik cen energii może dostarczać bardziej wartościowych informacji niż klasyczne miary inflacji, takie jak HICP. Dodatkowo wstępne badanie wpływu udziału energii odnawialnej na poziom NPL wskazało, że państwa o wyższym udziale energii odnawialnej są mniej podatne na wahania cen energii, co ostatecznie pozytywnie wpływa na stabilność finansową. Wyniki wskazują, że dogłębna analiza rynku energii może istotnie wzbogacić rozumienie stabilności finansowej w kontekście poziomu kredytów zagrożonych (NPL).
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