Cykliczność szarej strefy w Polsce w latach 2018–2024: mechanizm zmian

Radosław A. Kycia; Agnieszka Niemczynowicz; Andrzej Buszko

doi:10.33119/SIP.2026.208.4

Authors

Radosław A. Kycia Politechnika Krakowska
Agnieszka Niemczynowicz Politechnika Krakowska
Andrzej Buszko Uniwersytet Pomorski w Słupsku

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33119/SIP.2026.208.4

Keywords:

shadow economy, cycle, mechanism, change, trend

Abstract

The aim of the research was to identify shadow economy cyclicality in Poland during 2018–2024. The paper demonstrates that for confidence level of 95% the shadow economy in Poland is a cyclic phenomenon relative to GDP developments. The trend and cross-correlation analysis techniques were used in the research. The Hodrick – Prescott filter was used, and the correlation between the cyclical component of GDP and the cyclical component of the shadow economy was employed. Based on the results, shadow economy changes in relation to the GDP level were identified.

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References

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