Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market
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real estate, cycles, fiskal policy
Abstrakt
Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest.
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Bibliografia
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