The COVID-19 pandemic and changes in the demand for cash and payment behaviour in Poland in 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33119/SIP.2021.182.4Keywords:
COVID-19 pandemic, payment behaviour, demand for cash, cashAbstract
COVID-19 pandemic has become the catalyst of rapid changes taking place in social behaviour and in modus operandi of contemporary economies. Immediately after the outbreak of the pandemic was declared, in Poland and in Europe demand for cash soared. However, the studies conducted so far suggest that the increase has not been reflected in the value of cash payments made by consumers. The paper explores reasons why demand for cash grew, as well as the scale of substitution of cash by cashless instruments. To achieve this goal, the authors deployed a broad spectrum of data and analytical methods which, to the best of their knowledge, had never been used before to examine the Polish market. The obtained results have led to the conclusion that the main reason why demand for cash increased was the wish to use it to store value while, at the same time, the usage of cash in transactions during the pandemic exhibited a downward trend.
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References
Dokumenty prawne
1. Ustawa z dnia 7 lipca 1994 r. o denominacji złotego, Dz.U. z 1994 r. nr 84, poz. 386.
Wydawnictwa zwarte i artykuły prasowe
1. Arango-Arango C. A., Bouhdaoui Y., Bounie D., Eschelbach M., Hernandez L. [2018], Cash Remains Top-of-Wallet! International Evidence from Payment Diaries, „Economic Modelling”, 69, s. 38–48.
2. Armelius H., Claussen C. A., Reslow A. [2020], Withering Cash: Is Sweden ahead of the Curve or Just Special?, Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers, nr 393.
3. Ashworth J., Goodhart C. A. E. [2020], The Surprising Recovery of Currency Usage, „International Journal of Central Banking”, 16 (3), s. 239–277.
4. Assenmacher K., Seitz F., Tenhofen J. [2019], The Demand for Swiss Banknotes: Some New Evidence, „Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics”, 155.
5. Auer R., Cornelli G., Frost J. [2020], Covid-19, Cash, and the Future of Payments, „BIS Bulletin”, 3.
6. Bagnall J., Bounie D., Huynh K. P., Kosse A., Schmidt T., Schuh S., Stix H. [2016], Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data, „International Journal of Central Banking”, 12 (4), s. 1–59.
7. Bailey A. [2009], Banknotes in Circulation: Still Rising: What Does this Mean for the Future of Cash?, przemowa, Bank of England.
8. Bech M., Faruqui U., Ougaard F., Picillo C. [2018], Payments are A-changin’ but Cash Still Rules, „BIS Quarterly Review”, March, s. 67–80.
9. Boeschoten W. C., Fase M. M. G. [1989], The way we pay with money, „Journal of Business Economic Statistics”, 7 (3), s. 319–326.
10. Borgonovo E., Caselli S., Cillo A., Masciandaro D., Rabitti G. [2021], Money, Privacy, Anonymity: What Do Experiments Tell Us?, „Journal of Financial Stability”, 56, 100934.
11. Bounie D., Camara Y., Galbraith J. W. [2020], Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data, CIRANO Working Papers, nr 2020S – 28.
12. Cevik S. [2020], Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?, „International Finance”, 23 (3), s. 460–471.
13. Christelis D., Georgarakos D., Jappelli T., Kenny G. [2020], The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, nr 2507.
14. Cruijsen C. van der, Horst F. van der [2019], Cash or Card? Unravelling the Role of Socio-Psychological Factors, „De Economist”, 167 (2), s. 145–175.
15. Delaney L., McClure N., Finlay R. [2020], Cash Use in Australia: Results From the 2019 Consumer Payments Survey, „Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin”, 2, s. 43–54.
16. ECB [2020], Study on the Payment Attitudes of Consumers in the Euro Area (SPACE), European Central Bank.
17. Eger L., Komárková L., Egerová D., Mičík M. [2021], The Effect of COVID-19 on Consumer Shopping Behaviour: Generational Cohort Perspective, „Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services”, 61, 102542.
18. Fijałek I., Kania A., Kapelińska M., Kmita A., Kołodziej J., Kozioł G., Materniak G., Pawlak R. [2020], Raport o obrocie gotówkowym w Polsce w 2019 r., red. B. Jaroszek J. Kołodziej, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
19. Foster K., Greene C., Stavins J. [2020], The 2019 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: Summary Results, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Data Reports, nr 20–3.
20. Greene C., Stavins J. [2020], 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Data Reports, nr 20–4.
21. Gresvik O., Haare H. [2008], Payment Habits at Point of Sale. Different Methods of Calculating Use of Cards and Cash in Norway, Norges Bank Staff Memo, nr 6.
22. GUS [2021], Mały rocznik statystyczny Polski 2020, Warszawa.
23. Hale T., Angrist N., Goldszmidt R., Kira B., Petherick A., Phillips T., Webster S., Cameron-Blake E., Hallas L., Majumdar S., Tatlow H. [2021], A Global Panel Database of Pandemic Policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker), „Nature Human Behaviour”, 5 (4), s. 529–538.
24. Harasim J. [2016], Europe: The Shift from Cash to Non-Cash Transactions, w: Transforming Payment Systems in Europe, red. J. Górka, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
25. Harasim J., Klimontowicz M. [2016], Payment Habits and the Development of Innovative Payment Instruments in Poland, „Studia Ekonomiczne. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach”, 275, s. 42–56.
26. Harasim J., Klimontowicz M. [2017], Attitudes of Polish Households towards Cash Payments, „Europa Regionum”, 30, s. 17–31.
27. Heisel J. M. [2020], Cash Payments Are Declining, „Danmarks Nationalbank Analysis”, nr 3.
28. Henry C., Huynh K. P., Welte A. [2018], 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report, Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Papers, nr 17.
29. Huterska A., Piotrowska A. I., Szalacha-Jarmużek J. [2021], Fear of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Social Distancing as Factors Determining the Change in Consumer Payment Behavior at Retail and Service Outlets, „Energies”, 14, 4191.
30. Jonker N., Kosse A. [2009], The Impact of Survey Design on Research Outcomes: A Case Study of Seven Pilots Measuring Cash Usage in the Netherlands, DNB Working Papers, nr 221.
31. Jonker N., Cruijsen C. van der, Bijlsma M., Bolt W. [2020], Pandemic Payment Patterns, DNB Working Papers, nr 701.
32. Judson R. [2017], The Future of Cash in Crisis and Calm: Demand for US Dollar Banknotes, International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash?, s. 201–249.
33. Kaźmierczak A. [2008]. Polityka pieniężna w gospodarce otwartej, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
34. Keynes J. M. [1936], The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 2018 ed., Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
35. Khiaonarong T., Humphrey D. [2019], Cash use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency, „Journal of Payments Strategy Systems”, 13 (1), s. 32–46.
36. Kotkowski R., Dulinicz M., Maciejewski K. [2021], Zwyczaje płatnicze w Polsce w 2020 r. Podstawowe wyniki badania, red. R. Kotkowski, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
37. Kotkowski R., Polasik M. [2021], COVID-19 Pandemic Increases the Divide between Cash and Cashless Payment Users in Europe, „Economics Letters”, 209, 110139.
38. Koulayev S., Rysman M., Schuh S., Stavins J. [2016], Explaining Adoption and Use of Payment Instruments by US Consumers, „RAND Journal of Economics”, 47 (2), s. 293–325.
39. Koźliński T. [2013], Zwyczaje płatnicze Polaków, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
40. Lalouette L., Zamora-Pérez A., Rusu C., Bartzsch N., Politronacci E., Delmas M., Rua A., Brandi M., Naksi M. [2021], Foreign Demand for Euro Banknotes, ECB Occasional Paper Series, nr 253.
41. Li C., Lalani F. [2020], The COVID-19 Pandemic Has Changed Education Forever. This is How, World Economic Forum.
42. Madgavkar A., Lund S. [2020], Remote Working is Here to Stay. But Who Will be Doing It?, World Economic Forum.
43. Manikowski A. [2017], Raport z badania czynników oddziałujących na wielkość obrotu gotówkowego w Polsce, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
44. Marzec J., Polasik M., Fiszeder P. [2013], Wykorzystanie gotówki i karty płatniczej w punktach handlowo-usługowych w Polsce: zastosowanie dwuwymiarowego modelu Poissona, „Bank i Kredyt”, 44 (4), s. 375–402.
45. Pietrucha J., Maciejewski G. [2020], Precautionary Demand for Cash and Perceived Risk of Electronic Payments, „Sustainability”, 12 (19), 7977.
46. Polasik M., Marzec J., Fiszeder P., Górka J. [2012], Modelowanie wykorzystania metod płatności detalicznych na rynku polskim, „Materiały i Studia NBP”, 265.
47. Przenajkowska K., Polasik M., Maciejewski K., Koźliński T. [2019]. Koszty instrumentów płatniczych na rynku polskim. Raport końcowy z projektu badawczego NBP, red. K. Przenajkowska, M. Polasik, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
48. Restoy F. [2020], Central Banks and Financial Stability: A Reflection after the COVID-19 Outbreak, FSI Occasional Papers, nr 16.
49. Schmidt T. [2014], Consumers’ Recording Behaviour in Payment Diaries – Empirical Evidence from Germany, „Survey Methods: Insights from the Field”.
50. Schmiedel H., Kostova G. L., Ruttenberg W. [2012], The Social and Private Costs of Retail Payment Instruments: A European Perspective, ECB Occasional Paper Series, nr 137.
51. Świecka B., Terefenko P., Paprotny D. [2021], Transaction Factors’ Influence on the Choice of Payment by Polish Consumers, „Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services”, 58.
52. Świecka B., Terefenko P., Wiśniewski T., Xiao J. [2021], Consumer Financial Knowledge and Cashless Payment Behavior for Sustainable Development in Poland, „Sustainability”, 13 (11), 6401.
53. Wisniewski T. P., Polasik M., Kotkowski R., Moro A. [2021], Switching from Cash to Cashless Payments During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond, NBP Working Papers, nr 337.
54. Zamora-Pérez A. [2021], The Paradox of Banknotes: Understanding the Demand for Cash Beyond Transactional Use, „ECB Economic Bulletin”, 2, s. 121–137.
Materiały internetowe
1. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/-visitors-covid?country=~POL changes
2. https://www.nbp.pl/statystyka/pieniezna_i_bankowa/struktura-obiegu.html
3. https://www.nbp.pl/statystyka/pieniezna_i_bankowa/m3.htmlvvvv
1. Ustawa z dnia 7 lipca 1994 r. o denominacji złotego, Dz.U. z 1994 r. nr 84, poz. 386.
Wydawnictwa zwarte i artykuły prasowe
1. Arango-Arango C. A., Bouhdaoui Y., Bounie D., Eschelbach M., Hernandez L. [2018], Cash Remains Top-of-Wallet! International Evidence from Payment Diaries, „Economic Modelling”, 69, s. 38–48.
2. Armelius H., Claussen C. A., Reslow A. [2020], Withering Cash: Is Sweden ahead of the Curve or Just Special?, Sveriges Riksbank Working Papers, nr 393.
3. Ashworth J., Goodhart C. A. E. [2020], The Surprising Recovery of Currency Usage, „International Journal of Central Banking”, 16 (3), s. 239–277.
4. Assenmacher K., Seitz F., Tenhofen J. [2019], The Demand for Swiss Banknotes: Some New Evidence, „Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics”, 155.
5. Auer R., Cornelli G., Frost J. [2020], Covid-19, Cash, and the Future of Payments, „BIS Bulletin”, 3.
6. Bagnall J., Bounie D., Huynh K. P., Kosse A., Schmidt T., Schuh S., Stix H. [2016], Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data, „International Journal of Central Banking”, 12 (4), s. 1–59.
7. Bailey A. [2009], Banknotes in Circulation: Still Rising: What Does this Mean for the Future of Cash?, przemowa, Bank of England.
8. Bech M., Faruqui U., Ougaard F., Picillo C. [2018], Payments are A-changin’ but Cash Still Rules, „BIS Quarterly Review”, March, s. 67–80.
9. Boeschoten W. C., Fase M. M. G. [1989], The way we pay with money, „Journal of Business Economic Statistics”, 7 (3), s. 319–326.
10. Borgonovo E., Caselli S., Cillo A., Masciandaro D., Rabitti G. [2021], Money, Privacy, Anonymity: What Do Experiments Tell Us?, „Journal of Financial Stability”, 56, 100934.
11. Bounie D., Camara Y., Galbraith J. W. [2020], Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data, CIRANO Working Papers, nr 2020S – 28.
12. Cevik S. [2020], Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?, „International Finance”, 23 (3), s. 460–471.
13. Christelis D., Georgarakos D., Jappelli T., Kenny G. [2020], The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, nr 2507.
14. Cruijsen C. van der, Horst F. van der [2019], Cash or Card? Unravelling the Role of Socio-Psychological Factors, „De Economist”, 167 (2), s. 145–175.
15. Delaney L., McClure N., Finlay R. [2020], Cash Use in Australia: Results From the 2019 Consumer Payments Survey, „Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin”, 2, s. 43–54.
16. ECB [2020], Study on the Payment Attitudes of Consumers in the Euro Area (SPACE), European Central Bank.
17. Eger L., Komárková L., Egerová D., Mičík M. [2021], The Effect of COVID-19 on Consumer Shopping Behaviour: Generational Cohort Perspective, „Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services”, 61, 102542.
18. Fijałek I., Kania A., Kapelińska M., Kmita A., Kołodziej J., Kozioł G., Materniak G., Pawlak R. [2020], Raport o obrocie gotówkowym w Polsce w 2019 r., red. B. Jaroszek J. Kołodziej, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
19. Foster K., Greene C., Stavins J. [2020], The 2019 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice: Summary Results, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Data Reports, nr 20–3.
20. Greene C., Stavins J. [2020], 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Research Data Reports, nr 20–4.
21. Gresvik O., Haare H. [2008], Payment Habits at Point of Sale. Different Methods of Calculating Use of Cards and Cash in Norway, Norges Bank Staff Memo, nr 6.
22. GUS [2021], Mały rocznik statystyczny Polski 2020, Warszawa.
23. Hale T., Angrist N., Goldszmidt R., Kira B., Petherick A., Phillips T., Webster S., Cameron-Blake E., Hallas L., Majumdar S., Tatlow H. [2021], A Global Panel Database of Pandemic Policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker), „Nature Human Behaviour”, 5 (4), s. 529–538.
24. Harasim J. [2016], Europe: The Shift from Cash to Non-Cash Transactions, w: Transforming Payment Systems in Europe, red. J. Górka, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
25. Harasim J., Klimontowicz M. [2016], Payment Habits and the Development of Innovative Payment Instruments in Poland, „Studia Ekonomiczne. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach”, 275, s. 42–56.
26. Harasim J., Klimontowicz M. [2017], Attitudes of Polish Households towards Cash Payments, „Europa Regionum”, 30, s. 17–31.
27. Heisel J. M. [2020], Cash Payments Are Declining, „Danmarks Nationalbank Analysis”, nr 3.
28. Henry C., Huynh K. P., Welte A. [2018], 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report, Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Papers, nr 17.
29. Huterska A., Piotrowska A. I., Szalacha-Jarmużek J. [2021], Fear of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Social Distancing as Factors Determining the Change in Consumer Payment Behavior at Retail and Service Outlets, „Energies”, 14, 4191.
30. Jonker N., Kosse A. [2009], The Impact of Survey Design on Research Outcomes: A Case Study of Seven Pilots Measuring Cash Usage in the Netherlands, DNB Working Papers, nr 221.
31. Jonker N., Cruijsen C. van der, Bijlsma M., Bolt W. [2020], Pandemic Payment Patterns, DNB Working Papers, nr 701.
32. Judson R. [2017], The Future of Cash in Crisis and Calm: Demand for US Dollar Banknotes, International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash?, s. 201–249.
33. Kaźmierczak A. [2008]. Polityka pieniężna w gospodarce otwartej, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
34. Keynes J. M. [1936], The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 2018 ed., Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
35. Khiaonarong T., Humphrey D. [2019], Cash use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency, „Journal of Payments Strategy Systems”, 13 (1), s. 32–46.
36. Kotkowski R., Dulinicz M., Maciejewski K. [2021], Zwyczaje płatnicze w Polsce w 2020 r. Podstawowe wyniki badania, red. R. Kotkowski, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
37. Kotkowski R., Polasik M. [2021], COVID-19 Pandemic Increases the Divide between Cash and Cashless Payment Users in Europe, „Economics Letters”, 209, 110139.
38. Koulayev S., Rysman M., Schuh S., Stavins J. [2016], Explaining Adoption and Use of Payment Instruments by US Consumers, „RAND Journal of Economics”, 47 (2), s. 293–325.
39. Koźliński T. [2013], Zwyczaje płatnicze Polaków, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
40. Lalouette L., Zamora-Pérez A., Rusu C., Bartzsch N., Politronacci E., Delmas M., Rua A., Brandi M., Naksi M. [2021], Foreign Demand for Euro Banknotes, ECB Occasional Paper Series, nr 253.
41. Li C., Lalani F. [2020], The COVID-19 Pandemic Has Changed Education Forever. This is How, World Economic Forum.
42. Madgavkar A., Lund S. [2020], Remote Working is Here to Stay. But Who Will be Doing It?, World Economic Forum.
43. Manikowski A. [2017], Raport z badania czynników oddziałujących na wielkość obrotu gotówkowego w Polsce, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
44. Marzec J., Polasik M., Fiszeder P. [2013], Wykorzystanie gotówki i karty płatniczej w punktach handlowo-usługowych w Polsce: zastosowanie dwuwymiarowego modelu Poissona, „Bank i Kredyt”, 44 (4), s. 375–402.
45. Pietrucha J., Maciejewski G. [2020], Precautionary Demand for Cash and Perceived Risk of Electronic Payments, „Sustainability”, 12 (19), 7977.
46. Polasik M., Marzec J., Fiszeder P., Górka J. [2012], Modelowanie wykorzystania metod płatności detalicznych na rynku polskim, „Materiały i Studia NBP”, 265.
47. Przenajkowska K., Polasik M., Maciejewski K., Koźliński T. [2019]. Koszty instrumentów płatniczych na rynku polskim. Raport końcowy z projektu badawczego NBP, red. K. Przenajkowska, M. Polasik, Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa.
48. Restoy F. [2020], Central Banks and Financial Stability: A Reflection after the COVID-19 Outbreak, FSI Occasional Papers, nr 16.
49. Schmidt T. [2014], Consumers’ Recording Behaviour in Payment Diaries – Empirical Evidence from Germany, „Survey Methods: Insights from the Field”.
50. Schmiedel H., Kostova G. L., Ruttenberg W. [2012], The Social and Private Costs of Retail Payment Instruments: A European Perspective, ECB Occasional Paper Series, nr 137.
51. Świecka B., Terefenko P., Paprotny D. [2021], Transaction Factors’ Influence on the Choice of Payment by Polish Consumers, „Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services”, 58.
52. Świecka B., Terefenko P., Wiśniewski T., Xiao J. [2021], Consumer Financial Knowledge and Cashless Payment Behavior for Sustainable Development in Poland, „Sustainability”, 13 (11), 6401.
53. Wisniewski T. P., Polasik M., Kotkowski R., Moro A. [2021], Switching from Cash to Cashless Payments During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond, NBP Working Papers, nr 337.
54. Zamora-Pérez A. [2021], The Paradox of Banknotes: Understanding the Demand for Cash Beyond Transactional Use, „ECB Economic Bulletin”, 2, s. 121–137.
Materiały internetowe
1. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/-visitors-covid?country=~POL changes
2. https://www.nbp.pl/statystyka/pieniezna_i_bankowa/struktura-obiegu.html
3. https://www.nbp.pl/statystyka/pieniezna_i_bankowa/m3.htmlvvvv
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Published
2022-01-18
How to Cite
Kaźmierczak, A. ., Kotkowski, R. ., & Maciejewski, K. . (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic and changes in the demand for cash and payment behaviour in Poland in 2020. Studies and Work of the Collegium of Management and Finance , (182), 59–76. https://doi.org/10.33119/SIP.2021.182.4
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